UAlbany Atmospheric Scientist Discusses Hurricane Forecasting Ahead of 2026 Season

By Mike Nolan

ALBANY, N.Y. (May 28, 2026) — Forecasters are predicting a near-average to slightly below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially begins June 1, with a developing El Niño pattern expected to limit storm activity.

However, experts warn that it only takes one major storm hitting a populated area to make for a damaging hurricane season.

Brian Tang, a professor in the University at Albany’s Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, studies tropical cyclones, severe thunderstorms and other high-impact weather events.

Last week, Tang published an article in The Conversation that explores how hurricane forecasts have improved in recent decades and why those improvements should not be taken for granted.

“Every year, Americans rely on accurate forecasts when hurricanes may be developing to know when to stock up on supplies, prepare for power outages or evacuate,” Tang said. “Over the past year, federal funding cuts and job losses in programs that help make Americans safer from extreme weather threaten to stall progress and stretch forecasting resources to the breaking point.”

Among Tang’s areas of focus are hurricane formation and the factors that drive intensification. He is currently leading projects funded by the National Science Foundation and NASA aimed at improving our understanding of how hurricanes interact with their environment. 

Tang says that improved satellite data, hurricane hunter flights, higher-resolution computer models and emerging AI tools have all contributed to more reliable forecasts and longer lead times for evacuations.

Despite these advances, he notes that cuts in funding and staffing have strained NOAA’s ability to collect critical observations. Last year, retired NOAA scientists volunteered to staff hurricane hunter reconnaissance flights so the missions could continue.

“With coastal populations and development expanding over the past few decades, and storms becoming stronger, the vulnerability of the U.S. to costly, damaging hurricanes has increased dramatically,” Tang said. “It is more important than ever that public investment in hurricane science and forecasting continues.”

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