Japanese Trade Shock Linked to Higher Mortality Among Black Americans, New Study Finds
ALBANY, N.Y. (Nov. 20, 2025) — A new study led by the University at Albany finds that rising Japanese import competition during the 1970s and 1980s contributed to significant increases in mortality among Black Americans, especially from cardiovascular disease and drug-related causes.
The research, published in the November issue of Health Economics, was led by Quan Qi, now a postdoctoral fellow at Johns Hopkins University, as part of her doctoral dissertation at UAlbany, along with UAlbany economics professors Pinka Chatterji and Chun-Yu Ho.
The study used national mortality data from 1970 and 1990. The team linked regional increases in Japanese import competition — particularly in the automobile and computer industries — to local health outcomes.
“Specifically, a $1,000 increase in import competition is associated with a 3% increase in cardiovascular mortality per 100,000 Black individuals aged 20–64 years old, while there is no statistically significant effect among whites,” said Qi. “Additionally, a $1,000 increase in import competition is associated with a 13.5 percent increase in drug‐related deaths per 100,000 Black individuals aged 20–64 years old, compared to a 7.8 percent increase among white individuals.”
The researchers also found fewer accidental deaths in regions most affected by the trade shock, a decline seen primarily among white adults and potentially reflecting shifts in work and commuting patterns as manufacturing jobs declined.
Regional impacts
According to the study, the northern and Rust Belt regions — including New York and Michigan — experienced some of the steepest increases in Japanese import competition during this period.
“When trade policy reshapes local economies, the effects ripple far beyond employment statistics and into the health and well-being of communities,” Qi said. “In our dataset, the Buffalo-Niagara Falls-Rochester region and Binghamton were among the New York areas most affected by the surge in Japanese imports.”
Economic shocks affect health
The authors note that trade shocks are often discussed in purely economic terms, but their consequences extend into community health — especially in places heavily dependent on manufacturing.
“Trade liberalization has been studied extensively for its labor market impacts, yet we still know far less about how these disruptions influence long-run health,” said Chatterji, professor and department chair of the Department of Economics at UAlbany. “Our findings underscore the need for policies such as job retraining, stable health coverage and support for displaced workers, because the benefits of these programs extend well beyond the workplace.”
Ho said the collaboration highlights the importance of combining economic modeling with demographic and public health data.
“Import competition did not affect all groups equally,” said Ho, an associate professor of economics at UAlbany. “Understanding who is most vulnerable when industries are disrupted can help policymakers design responses that reduce harm and protect community well-being.”
The analysis draws on mortality data from the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics and measures regional import exposure using commuting-zone employment patterns from the 1970s and 1980s.