Study: Extreme Heatwaves Across the Caribbean Are Becoming More Frequent and Severe
By Mike Nolan
ALBANY, N.Y. (Jan. 29, 2026) — A new study led by climatologists at the University at Albany has found that extreme heatwaves across the Caribbean are becoming significantly more frequent, longer and severe.
This study examined extreme summer heatwaves in the Caribbean over the last five decades, focusing on their causes and how they have changed over time.
Analyzing decades of climate data, the researchers found that heatwaves are lasting longer and occurring more often, especially in Cuba, Haiti, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic, with rising temperatures during these events.
Findings were published last month in Geophysical Research Letters.
“The Caribbean is particularly vulnerable to extreme heat events. Its tropical location receives intense sunlight, and reduced cloud cover during heatwaves allows more solar energy to reach the surface, driving higher temperatures,” said Jorge González-Cruz, a Professor of Empire Innovation at UAlbany's Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, who led the study. “Our study provides important new insights for strengthening the region’s preparedness in a warming climate.”
Studying Extreme Heat
To arrive at their findings, the researchers analyzed temperature and climate records from 1971 to 2025 to identify trends in the frequency, duration and intensity of heatwaves across the region.
Their analysis revealed a significant increase in extreme heat events, defined as days where both the maximum and minimum heat indices exceed the 95th percentile. This trend was particularly evident in major urban centers such as Havana, Santo Domingo, San Juan, and Port-au-Prince, where recorded heatwaves have increased by up to three additional days per decade. The severity has also risen, with recent events reaching maximum “feel-like” temperatures above 115 degrees Fahrenheit.
The researchers linked much of the increase to rising global temperatures. They also found that El Niño events, characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures, were associated with more frequent heatwaves, adding roughly two extra days per season.
“Climate change is not only warming the globe, but also reshaping patterns of extreme heat in highly vulnerable regions like the Caribbean,” said F.B. Oppong, the study’s first author and a doctoral student at UAlbany’s Atmospheric Sciences Research Center. “Our findings highlight a growing and immediate threat to public health and urgent need to improve preparedness for future extreme heat events.”
“Extreme heat in the Caribbean is not a future risk, it is already increasing rapidly,” added González-Cruz. “These findings underscore the need for stronger heat preparedness policies to protect people and infrastructure across the region.”
Boosting Caribbean Climate Resilience
González-Cruz, a Puerto Rican native, is a coastal-urban climatologist focused on helping vulnerable island communities better prepare for and respond to climate extremes.
In 2023, he joined the Caribbean Collaborative Action Network, which connects scientists with community and government stakeholders to improve preparedness and response to climate extremes. The network is made up of around a dozen researchers and is part of a broader group supported by NOAA’s Climate Adaptation Partnerships program, which aims to help U.S. communities build lasting and equitable climate resilience.
González-Cruz plans to share study findings with the network, along with policymakers and other community leaders.
“Investments in climate monitoring, heat mitigation strategies and community education will be key to safeguarding the region as heat extremes continue to evolve in our warming world,” he said.
Other research collaborators on the study included Sabrina Gozalez of UAlbany’s Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, Keneshia Hibbert of the CUNY Graduate Center and Pablo A. Méndez Lázaro of the University of Puerto Rico, Medical Sciences Campus.