Showcase 2023: Improving Winter Weather Forecasts
By Mike Nolan
ALBANY, N.Y. (March 28, 2023) — For more than a year, John England has been juggling his classwork as a full-time student and helping researchers improve forecasting of near-freezing winter storm events.
England, a senior atmospheric science major, is part of the National Science Foundation’s $3.6 million, multi-institution “WINTRE-MIX” team that seeks to improve understanding of both variability and predictability of precipitation in near-freezing surface conditions.
The project launched through a six-week observational field campaign that started in February 2022 and centered on northern New York/Vermont and southern Quebec, a region that averages more than 250 hours of precipitation in the ± 2 degrees Celsius temperature range, and more freezing rain events (exceeding a six-hour duration) than anywhere in North America except for eastern Newfoundland.
England, through the mentorship of Justin Minder, an associate professor in the Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, was among the student assistants from partnering institutions who were invited to collect real-time weather observations during the field campaign and analyze the data.
He will present his research at the University at Albany’s inaugural Showcase Day on Thursday, April 27.
“Professor Minder was looking for student volunteers to help with the WINTRE-MIX field work in Plattsburgh and I jumped at the opportunity,” England said. “We took a ton of measurements, while also observing data from existing weather observational networks, including the New York State Mesonet, headquartered on UAlbany’s campus. After the campaign concluded, I continued on the project, turning our data collection into a senior thesis.”
Near-Freezing Weather Prediction
England’s thesis investigates near-freezing precipitation from two winter storms in the Champlain Valley by comparing data collected during the WINTRE-MIX field campaign to the High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) system, a collection of different mesoscale weather models that assist forecasters.
Both storms brought extended periods of mixed surface precipitation types, which combined with the complex terrain of the region, made forecasting difficult. England is publishing his findings before the end of the semester on UAlbany’s website.
"John took full advantage of his opportunities to engage with the WINTRE-MIX project. He helped forecast local weather conditions for planning field operations, collected unique observations in the field under challenging winter weather conditions, and conducted careful analysis comparing the data we collected to forecasts from weather models,” said Minder, who is the project’s principal investigator.
“His professionalism and work ethic have made him a pleasure to work with. I've especially enjoyed seeing his data analysis skills grow rapidly over the past year to the point where he can independently write code to run sophisticated analyses of weather data and generate high-quality graphics to communicate his results to others."
Forensic Meteorology
Following graduation, England has accepted a full-time position at Forensic Weather Consultants in Guilderland, one of the largest and most reliable weather expert firms in the country. The team, which includes a half dozen UAlbany alums, is made up of Certified Consulting Meteorologists (CCMs), forensic meteorologists and computer modelers who provide past weather information, in-depth meteorological analyses and written expert reports for claims and lawsuits nationwide.
England credits UAlbany for helping him carve his career path.
“Being able to work with nationally renowned atmospheric scientists at ETEC has been incredible,” England said. “It exposed me to all different types of career paths that are available in meteorology and led to me having a job lined up at one of the top forensic meteorology firms in the nation before graduating.”
UAlbany Showcase Day
Showcase Day will bring together the entire University community to highlight the academic excellence of UAlbany students through their research, scholarship, creative activities and experiential learning.
This day-long event unites UAlbany's existing student showcases and conferences, with students across all disciplines presenting their work.
The showcase will include:
- Poster presentations
- Research talks
- Art exhibitions
- Student performances
Events will be held from 8:30 a.m. to 5 p.m. around the Academic Podium, including the Lecture Center Concourse, the University Art Museum, Performing Arts Center and University Library, as well as in the Campus Center and ETEC.