Tom Stewart home page

Tom Stewart papers with links to full text (if available, others available by request)

Revised 9/7/13

 

Stewart, T. R., Mumpower, J. L., & Holzworth, R. J. (2012). Learning to make selection and detection decisions: The roles of base rate and feedback. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 25(5), 522-533.  Online Abstract

 

Weaver, E. A., & Stewart, T. R. (2012). Dimensions of judgment:  Factor analysis of individual differences. Behavioral Decision Making (Special issue on individual differences). 25, 402–413.  Online Abstract

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Ghaffarzadegan, N., & Stewart, T. R. (2011). An Extension to the constructivist coding hypothesis as a learning model for selective feedback when the base rate is high. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 37(4), 1044-1047.

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Martinez-Moyano, I. J., Rich, E., Conrad, S., Andersen, D. F., & Stewart, T. R. (2008). A Behavioral Theory of Insider-Threat Risks:  A System Dynamics Approach. ACM Transactions on Modeling and Computer Simulation, 18(2), Article 7.

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Horrey, W. J., Wickens, C. D., Strauss, R., Kirlik, A., Stewart, T.R. (2006). Supporting situation assessment through attention guidance and diagnostic aiding:  The benefits and costs of display enhancement on judgment skill.  In Kirlik, A. (Ed.) Adaptive Perspectives on Human–Technology Interaction:  Methods and Models for Cognitive Engineering and Human-Computer Interaction. New York: Oxford University Press.

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Stewart, T.R. and Mumpower, J. L. (2004).  Detection and selection decisions in the practice of screening mammography.  Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 23(4), 908-920.

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Stewart, T. R., Pielke, R. Jr., Nath, R. (2004). Understanding user decision making and value of improved precipitation forecasts: Lessons from a case study.  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 85(2), 223-235.

Glahn, B. (2005).  Comments on "Understanding User Decision Making and the Value of Improved Precipitation Forecasts."  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 86(10) 1484-1487.

Stewart, T. R., Pielke, R. Jr., Nath, R. (2005). Reply to Glahn.  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 86(10) 1487-1488.

 

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Sorum, P. C., Stewart, T., Mullet, E., González-Vallejo, C., Shim, J., Chasseigne, G., Muñoz Sastre, M. T., and Grenier, B. (2002).  Does choosing a treatment depend on making a diagnosis?  U.S. and French physicians’ decision making about acute otitis media.  Medical Decision Making, 22(5), 394-402.

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Mumpower, J. L., Nath, R., and Stewart, T. R.  (2002)  Affirmative action, duality of error, and the consequences of mispredicting the academic performance of African-American college applicants.  Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 21(1), 63-77.

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Sorum, P. C., Shim, J., Chasseigne, G., Mullet, E., Muñoz Sastre, M. T., Stewart, T., González-Vallejo, C. (2002).  Do Parents and Physicians Differ in Making Decisions About Acute Otitis Media? The Journal of Family Practice, 51, 51-57.

 

Hammond, K. R. and Stewart, T. R. (Eds.) (2001).  The Essential Brunswik: Beginnings, Explications, Applications.  New York: Oxford University Press.

 

Stewart, T. R., (2001) The lens model equation.  In K. R. Hammond and T. R. Stewart (Eds.), The Essential Brunswik: Beginnings, Explications, Applications.  New York: Oxford University Press, 357-362.

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Stewart, T. R. (2001). Improving reliability of judgmental forecasts. In J. S. Armstrong (Ed.), Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners . Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 81-106.

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Stewart, T. R. (2000).  Uncertainty, judgment, and error in prediction.  In Sarewitz, D., Pielke, R. Jr., and Byerly, R. Jr. (Eds.), Prediction:  Decision Making and the Future of Nature.  Washington D. C.: Island Press, 41-57.

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Stewart, T. R. (2000).  Modernization: The Challenge Continues (Guest editorial). Weatherzine, Number 20, February.

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Stewart, T. R. (1999). Commentary on “The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool:  Issues and analysis” by Rowe and Wright. Journal of Forecasting, 15, 380-381.

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Way, B. B., Allen, M. H., Mumpower, J. L., Stewart, T. R., & Banks, S. M. (1998). Interrater agreement among psychiatrist in psychiatric emergency assessments. Am J Psychiatry, 155(10), 1423-8.

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González-Vallejo, C., Sorum, P.C., Stewart, T.R., Chessare, J.B., Mumpower, J. (1998).  A study of physicians’ diagnostic judgments and treatment decisions for acute otitis media in children.  Medical Decision Making, 18, 149-162.

 

Chasseigne, G., Mullet, E., & Stewart, T. R. (1997). Aging and multiple cue probability learning:  The case of inverse relationships. Acta Psychologica, 97, 235-252.

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Stewart, T. R., Roebber, P. J. and Bosart, L. F. (1997). The importance of the task in analyzing expert judgment.  Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 69, 205-219.

 

Pielke, R.A., Kimpel, J., et al. (1997).  Societal aspects of weather:  Report of the Sixth Prospectus Development Team of the U.S. Weather Research Program to NOAA and NSF.  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 78, 867-876

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Stewart, T. R. (1997).  Forecast value:  Descriptive decision studies. In R. W. Katz & A. H. Murphy (Eds.), Economic value of weather and climate forecasts (pp. 147-181). New York: Cambridge University Press.

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Stewart, T. R. (1997, April 2-4). Descriptive Decision Studies of the Societal Impact of Weather and Climate Information. Paper presented at the Workshop on the Social and Economic Impacts of Weather, Boulder, Colorado.

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Mumpower, J. L. and Stewart, T. R. (1996).  Expert judgement and expert disagreement.  Thinking and Reasoning, 2, 191-211.

 

Joyce, C. R. B. and Stewart, T. R. (1994).  Applied research on judgment:  What should happen. Acta Psychologica, 87, 217-227.

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Stewart, T. R. and Lusk, C. M. (1994).  Seven components of judgmental forecasting skill:  Implications for research and the improvement of forecasts.  Journal of Forecasting, 13, 575-599.  (Reprinted in Connolly, T., Arkes, H. R., and Hammond K. R., Eds., (2000)  Judgment and Decision Making:  An Interdisciplinary Reader, Second Edition.  New York:  Cambridge University Press.)

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Heideman, K.F., Stewart, T.R., Moninger, W.R. and Reagan-Cirincione, P. (1993).  The weather information and skill experiment (WISE):  The effect of varying levels of information on forecast skill.  Weather and Forecasting, 8, 25-36.

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Stewart, T.R., Moninger, W.R., Heideman, K.F., and Reagan-Cirincione, P. (1992).  Effects of improved information on the components of skill in weather forecasting.  Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 53, 107-134.

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Shanteau, J. and Stewart, T.R. (1992).  Why study expert decision making?  Some historical perspectives and comments.  Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 53, 95-106.

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Moninger, W.R., Bullas, J., deLorenzis, B., Ellison, E., Flueck, J., McLeod, J.C., Lusk, C., Lampru, P.D., Roberts, W.F., Shaw, R., Stewart, T.R., Weaver, J., Young, K.C., Zubrick, S. M. (1991).  Shootout-89 - A comparative evaluation of knowledge-based systems that forecast severe weather.  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 72, 1339-1354.

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Stewart, T.R. (1991). Scientists' uncertainty and disagreement about global climate change: A psychological perspective, International Journal of Psychology, 26, 565-573.

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Stewart, T.R. and Reagan-Cirincione, P. (1991). Coefficients for debiasing forecasts. Monthly Weather Review, 119, 2047-2051.

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Stewart, T.R. (1990). A Decomposition of the correlation coefficient and its use in analyzing forecasting skill.  Weather and Forecasting, 5, 661-666.

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Lusk, C.M., Stewart, T.R., Hammond, K.R. and Potts, R.J. (1990).  Judgment and decision making in dynamic tasks:  The case of forecasting the microburst, Weather and Forecasting, 5, 627-639.

 

Irwin, J.R., Schenk, D., McClelland, G.H., Schulze, W.D., Stewart, T.R., and Thayer, M. (1990).  Urban visibility values:  Some experiments in the use of the contingent valuation method.  In C.V. Mathai (ed.) Visibility and Fine Particles, Transactions of the Air and Waste Management Association.

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Stewart, T.R., Moninger, W.R., Grassia, J., Brady, R.H. and Merrem, F.H. (1989). Analysis of expert judgment and skill in a hail forecasting experiment, Weather and Forecasting, 4, 24-34.

 

Stewart, T.R., Curran T.P., de Alteriis M., Mumpower J.L., and Svitek L.L. (Eds.) (1989).  Perspectives on Medical Waste.  Albany: Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government, State University of New York.

 

Downton, M.W., Stewart, T.R. and Miller, K.A. (1988). Estimating heating and cooling needs: Per capita degree days.  Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology, 27, 84-90.

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Taylor, J.G., Stewart, T.R., and Downton, M.W. (1988).  Perceptions of drought in the Ogallala aquifer region. Environment and Behavior, 20, 150-175.

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Stewart, T.R. and Joyce, C.R.B. (1988).  Increasing the power of clinical trials through judgment analysis. Medical Decision Making, 8, 33-38.

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Stewart, T.R. (1988).  Judgment analysis. In Brehmer, B. and Joyce, C.R.B. (Eds.) Human Judgment: The Social Judgment Theory View, Amsterdam: North-Holland.

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Taylor, J.G., Downton, M.W. and Stewart, T.R. (1988).  Adapting to environmental change: Perceptions and farming practices in the Ogallala aquifer region. In Whitehead, E.E., Hutchinson, C.F., Timmerman, B.N. and Varady, R.G. (Eds.) Arid Lands: Today and Tomorrow, Boulder: Westview Press.

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Stewart, T.R. (1987).  The Delphi technique and judgmental forecasting.  Climatic Change, 11, 97-113.

 

Stewart, T.R. (1987).  Developing an observer-based measure of environmental annoyance. In Harry S. Koelega (Ed.) Environmental Annoyance: Characterization, Measurement, and Control.  Amsterdam: Elsevier.

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Stewart, T.R. and McMillan, C., Jr. (1987).  Descriptive and prescriptive models of judgment and decision making: Implications for knowledge engineering. In J. Mumpower, L. Phillips, O. Renn, and V.R.R. Uppuluri (Eds.)  Expert Judgment and Expert Systems.  New York: Springer-Verlag.  (305-320).

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Stewart, T.R. and Leschine, T. (1986).  Judgment and analysis in oil spill risk assessment.  Risk Analysis, 6, 305-315.

 

Middleton, P., Stewart, T.R., and Leary, J. (1985).  On the use of human judgment and physical/chemical measurements in visual air quality management.  Journal of the Air Pollution Control Association, 35, 11-18.

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Stewart, T.R. and M. Glantz (1985).  Expert judgment and climate forecasting: A methodological critique of "Climate Change to the Year 2000."  Climatic Change, 7, 159-183.

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Stewart, T.R., Middleton, P., Downton, M., and Ely, D. (1984).  Judgments of photographs vs. field observations in studies of perception and judgment of the visual environment.  Journal of Environmental Psychology, 4, 283-302.

 

Middleton, P., Stewart, T.R. and Ely, D. (1984).  Physical and chemical indicators of urban visual air quality judgments.  Atmospheric Environment, 18, 861-870.

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Stewart, T.R., Katz, R.W., and Murphy, A.H. (1984).  Value of weather information: A descriptive study of the fruit frost problem. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 65, 126-137.

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Stewart, T.R., Dennis, R.L., and Ely, D.W. (1984).  Citizen participation and judgment in policy analysis: A case study of urban air quality policy.  Policy Sciences, 17, 67-87.

 

Middleton, P., Stewart, T.R., and Dennis, R.L. (1983).  Modeling human judgments of visual air quality.  Atmospheric Environment, 17, 1015-1021.

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Dennis, R., Stewart, T.R., Middleton, P., Downton, M., Ely, D., and Keeling, C. (1983).  Integration of technical and value issues in air quality policy formation: A case study.  Socio-economic Planning Sciences, 17, 95-108.

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Stewart, T.R., Middleton, and Ely, D. (1983).  Urban visual air quality judgments: Reliability and validity.  Journal of Environmental Psychology, 3, 129-145.

 

Middleton, P., Stewart, T.R., Dennis, R.L., and Ely, D. (1983).  Implications of NCAR's urban visual air quality assessment method for pristine areas. In Rowe, R.D. and L.C. Chestnut (Eds.) Air Quality and Visual Resources in National Park and Wilderness Areas, Boulder: Westview Press.

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Stewart, T.R. (1983).  Visual air quality values: Public input and informed choice. In Rowe, R.D. and L.C. Chestnut (Eds.) Air Quality and Visual Resources in National Park and Wilderness Areas, Boulder: Westview Press.

 

Mumpower, J., Middleton, P., Dennis, R., Stewart, T.R. and Viers, V. (1981).  Visual Air Quality Assessment: Denver Case Study.  Atmospheric Environment, 12, 2433-2441.

 

Beal, D., Gillis, J.S. and Stewart, T.R. (1978).  The lens model: Computational procedures and applications.  Perceptual and Motor Skills, Monograph Supplement, 46, 3-28.

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Stewart, T.R. (1976).  Components of correlations and extensions of the lens model equation.  Psychometrika, 41, 101-120.

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Stewart, T.R., and Gelberd, L. (1976).  Analysis of judgmental policy: A new approach for citizen participation in planning.  Journal of the American Institute of Planners, 42, 33-41.

 

Wilsted, W.D., Hendrick, T.E., and Stewart, T.R. (1975).  Judgment policy capturing for bank loan decision: An approach to developing objective functions for goal programming models.  Journal of Management Studies, 12, 210-215.

 

Adelman, L., Stewart, T.R., and Hammond, K.R. (1975).  A case history of the application of social judgment theory to policy formulation.  Policy Sciences, 6, 137-159.

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Stewart, T.R., West, R.E., Hammond, K.R., and Kreith, F. (1975).  Improving human judgment in technology assessment.  Technology Assessment, 37-43.

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Cook, R.L., and Stewart, T.R. (1975).  A comparison of seven methods for obtaining subjective descriptions of judgmental policy. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 13, 31-45.

 

Stewart, T.R., Joyce, C.R.B., and Lindell, M.K. (1975).  New analyses: application of judgment theory to physicians' judgments of drug effects. In K.R. Hammond and C.R.B. Joyce (Eds.), Psychoactive Drugs and Social Judgment: Theory and Research.  New York: Wiley.

 

Gillis, J.S., Stewart, T.R., and Gritz, E. (1975).  New procedures: Use of interactive computer graphics and terminals with psychiatric patients.  In K.R. Hammond and C.R.B. Joyce (Eds.), Psychoactive Drugs and Social Judgment: Theory and Research.  New York: Wiley.

 

Stewart, T.R. (1975).  Policy capturing.  In C. McMillan, Jr., Mathematical Programming.  New York: Wiley.

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Hammond, K.R., Stewart, T.R., Brehmer, B., and Steinmann, D. (1975).  Social judgment theory.  In M.F. Kaplan and S. Schwartz (Eds.), Human Judgment and Decision Processes: Formal and Mathematical Approaches.  New York: Academic Press.

 

Stewart, T.R. (1974).  Generality of multidimensional representations. Multivariate Behavioral Research, 9, 507-519.

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Lindell, M.K., and Stewart, T.R. (1974).  Effects of redundancy in multiple-cue probability learning.  The American Journal of Psychology, 87, 393-398.

 

Payne, S., Summers, D.A., and Stewart, T.R. (1973).  Value differences across three generations.  Sociometry, 36, 20-30.

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Stewart, T.R. (1973).  Attitude measurement and the linear model.  Educational and Psychological Measurement, 33, 285-290.

 

Knowles, B.A., Hammond, K.R., Stewart, T.R., and Summers, D.A. (1972).  Detection of redundancy in multiple cue probability tasks.  Journal of Experimental Psychology, 93, 425-427.

 

Knowles, B.A., Hammond, K.R., Stewart, T.R., and Summers, D.A. (1971).  Positive and negative redundancy in multiple cue probability judgments.  Journal of Experimental Psychology, 90, 157-159.

 

Summers, D.A., Stewart, T.R., and Oncken, G.R. (1968). Interpersonal conflict in heterocultural dyads.  International Journal of Psychology, 3, 191-196.

 

Proceedings:

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Stewart, T. R., Pielke, R. A., Jr., and Nath, R. (2001).  Understanding user decision making and value of improved precipitation forecasts: Lessons from a case study.  World Weather Research Program/World Meteorological Organization Workshop on the Verification of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts, Prague, 14-16 May 2001.

 

Stewart, T. R. (1997). Descriptive decision studies of the societal impact of weather and climate information. In J. Roger A. Pielke (Ed.), Workshop on the Social and Economic Impacts of Weather (pp. 115-121). Boulder, CO (April 2-4): National Center for Atmospheric Research.

 

Way, B. B., Allen, M., Mumpower, J., Stewart, T., and Banks, S.  (1997)  Inter-rater agreement among doctors in psychiatric emergency assessments.  American Psychiatric Association Annual Meeting, San Diego, May 22, 1997.

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Stewart, T.R. and Richardson, G.P. (1994).  The role of cognition and simulation modeling in government response to creeping environmental phenomena.  In Glantz, M. H. (Ed.), Creeping Environmental Phenomena and Societal Responses to Them.  Proceedings of a Workshop held 7-9 February 1994 in Boulder, Colorado.  Environmental and Societal Impacts Group, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado. pp. 11-22.

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Richardson, G.P., Andersen, D.A., Maxwell, T.A., and Stewart, T.R. (1994).  Foundations of mental model research.  Proceedings of the 1994 International System Dynamics Conference, Stirling, Scotland, July 11-15.  Vol: Problem-Solving Methodologies, pp. 181-192.

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Andersen, D.A., Maxwell, T.A., Richardson, G.P., and Stewart, T.R. (1994).  Mental models and dynamic decision making in a simulation of welfare reform.  Proceedings of the 1994 International System Dynamics Conference, Stirling, Scotland, July 11-15.  Vol: Social and Public Policy, pp. 11-28.

 

Bernstein, D. S, Richardson, G.P., and Stewart, T.R. (1994).  A pocket model of global warming for policy and scientific debate.  Proceedings of the 1994 International System Dynamics Conference, Stirling, Scotland, July 11-15.  Vol: Organizational Environments, pp. 8-18.

 

Stewart, T.R., Reagan-Cirincione, P., and Moninger, W.R. (1992).  Coping with the meteorological data explosion through simulated group forecasting.  Preprint volume, Fourth AES/CMOS Workshop on Operational Meteorology, Whistler, B.C., September, 15-18, 39-48.

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Walker, D.C., Moninger, W.R. and Stewart, T.R. (1992).  Shootout-91:  A strategy for integrating computer assistance into the operational environment.  Preprint volume, Fourth AES/CMOS Workshop on Operational Meteorology, Whistler, B.C., September, 15-18, 49-58.

 

Maxwell, T.A., Andersen, D.F., Richardson, G.P., and Stewart, T.R. (1991).  Learning through simulated experience:  Building a computer-based learning environment to help public managers implement the JOBS program.  Proceedings of the National Public Management Research Conference, Syracuse, New York, September 21, 1991.

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Ely, D. Leary, J.T., Stewart, T.R., and Ross, D.M. (1991).  The establishment of the Denver Visibility Standard.  Proceedings of the Air and Waste Management Association, 84th Annual Meeting, Vancouver, B.C., June 16-21, 1991.

 

Andersen, D.F., Chung, I.J., Richardson, G.P., and Stewart, T.R. (1990).  Issues in Designing Interactive Games Based on System Dynamics Models.  System Dynamics '90: Proceedings of the 1990 International Systems Dynamics Conference, Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts, July 10-13, 1990.

 

Roberts, W., W.R. Moninger, B. deLorenzis, E. Ellison, J. Flueck, J.C. McLeod, C. Lusk, P.D. Lampru, R. Shaw, T.R. Stewart, J. Weaver, K.C. Young, S. Zubrick (1989).  A field test of artificial intelligence systems applied to the problem of severe weather forecasting:  Shootout-89, Proceedings, 11th Conference on Probability and Statistics and 12th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Monterey CA, October 2-6, 1989, Boston: American Meteorological Society, J59-J64.

 

Stewart, T.R., Moninger, W.R., Flueck, J.A., and Heideman, K. (1989).  Expert judgment and weather forecasting: Does better information lead to better forecasts?  Proceedings, 11th Conference on Probability and Statistics and 12th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Monterey CA, October 2-6, 1989, Boston: American Meteorological Society, J71.

 

Moninger, W.R., Stewart T.R., McIntosh P. (1988).  Evaluation of Knowledge-based systems for Probabilistic Forecasting. Proceedings, Validation and Testing of Knowledge-Based Systems Workshop, St. Paul, August.

 

Dhir, K.S. and Stewart, T.R. (1984).  Models and management: Bridging the gap.  Proceedings of the National Meeting of the American Institute for Decision Sciences.

 

Summers, D.A., and Stewart, T.R. (1968).  Regression models of foreign policy beliefs.  Proceedings, 76th Annual Convention, American Psychological Association, 195-196.

 

Other Papers and Reports:

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Stewart, T. R., & Bostrom, A. (2002). Extreme Event Decision Making Workshop Report. Albany, NY: Center for Policy Research, University at Albany.

 

Glantz, M.H., D.G. Streets, T.R. Stewart, N. Bhatti, C.M. Moore, and C.H. Rosa, (1998).  Exploring the Concept of Climate Surprises: A Review of the Literature on the Concept of Surprise and How It Is Related to Climate Change.  ANL/DIS/TM-46.  Available from the National Technical Information Service, US Dept. of Commerce, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, VA  22161.

 

Spivack, S., Stewart, T. R.,  Gonzalez-Vallejo, C.,  Englander, M., and Balint, J. (1996).  Premorbid prediction of in-hospital mortality.

 

Dawes, S. S., Bloniarz, P. A., Mumpower, J. L., Shern, D., Stewart, T. R., & Way, B. B. (1995). Supporting psychiatric assessments in emergency rooms (CTG Project Report 95-2). Albany, NY: Center for Technology in Government, University at Albany, SUNY.

 

Stewart, T. R. (1995).  On statistical terminology.  Teaching Statistics, 17(3), 103.

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Stewart, T.R., Mumpower, J.L., and Reagan-Cirincione, P. (1992).  Scientists' agreement and disagreement about global climate change:  Evidence from surveys.  Research Report, Center for Policy Research.

 

Stewart, T.R., Mumpower, J.L., and Reagan-Cirincione, P. (1992).  Scientists' opinions about global climate change:  Summary of the results of a survey.  NAEP (National Association of Environmental Professionals) Newsletter, 17(2), 6-7.

 

Mumpower, J.L. and Stewart T.R. (1990).  Expert Judgment, Risk Assessment, and Risk Communication.  Prepared for the seminar on Communication about Energy and Environment, Paris, October 26-27, 1989.

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Stewart, T.R. and Ely D. (1984).  Range sensitivity: A necessary condition and a test for the validity of subjective weights, University of Colorado, Center for Research on Judgment and Policy, Report No. 270.

 

Stewart, T.R. (1983).  Assessing Public Values. In Studies in the Quality of Life, Center for the Study of Values and Social Policy, University of Colorado, Boulder.

 

Hammond, K.R., Stewart, T.R., Adelman, L., and Wascoe, N. (1975).  Report to the Denver City Council and Mayor regarding the choice of handgun ammunition for the Denver Police Department.  Center for Research on Judgment and Policy, Report No. 179.