Tom Stewart
Because of the uncertainty about climate change, all forecasts are based on expert judgment. Recently, Scott Armstrong, a leader in forecasting research, has attacked forecasts of global warming, and the future of polar bears, because they don't follow "forecasting principles." He is attracting some press by challenging Al Gore to a wager on future climate. Furthermore, greenhouse gas emissions are a result of decisions that affect our behavior. Decision research suggests that the behavioral changes necessary to reduce greenhouse gases are unlikely. I will present some of the relevant arguments.