Published Papers

"Multiperiod Predictions in Dynamic Models," International Economic Review, October 1975, 699-711.

"Inflationary Expectations: Their Formation and Interest Rate Effects," American Economic Review, March 1976, 124-131.

"Estimation of Econometric Models with Unobservable Variables," Arthaniti, Journal of Economics of the University of Calcutta, Vol. X, 1977, 102-122.

"Estimation of Triangular Structural Models," (with Peter Schmidt), Econometrica, May 1978, 1217-1221. Reprinted in Simultaneous Equations Estimation (ed. Carl Christ), Edward
Elgar Publishing Ltd, London (1994). 

"A Note on a Theorem by Professor Chow," Economic Letters, Vol., 1, No. 2, 125-127. 

"Inflationary Expectations and the U.S. Wage-Price Dynamics," Proceedings of the Econometric Society European Meeting 1979, Selected Econometric Papers in Memory of Stefan Valavanis, (ed. E. G. Charatsis), North-Holland Publishing Co., 1981, 421-436. 

"A Joint Study of Expectations Formation and the Shifting Phillips Curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, July 1977, 347-359. 

MELO Predictors in Dynamic Economic Models," Proceedings of the American Statistical Association Meeting, (Business and Economic Statistics Section), 1977, 354-356. 

"Capital Formation in the Indian Cigarette Industry: A Micro-econometric Study," Sankhya-The Indian Journal of Statistics, 1979, 155-170. 

"Tests of Rational Expectations and the Fisher Effect," (with J. S. Lee), Southern Economic Journal, October 1979. 

"On ML Estimation of Functional Form and Heteroskedasticity," (with D. Egy), Economics Letters, 2, 1979, 155-159. 

"On the Constancy of Real Interest Rates," Economics Letters, 3, 1979, 45-48. 

"Rational Expectations and the Short-Run Phillips Curves," (with J. S. Lee),  Journal of Macroeconomics, Spring 1979, 167-190. 

"Joint Estimation and Tests of Functional Form and Heteroskedasticity," (with Daniel Egy).  Journal of Econometrics, June 1981, 299-307. 

"An Econometric Model of Wastepaper Recycling in the U.S.," (with G. S. Gill).  Resources Policy, December 1980. 320-325. 

"Rational Expectations and the Short-run Phillips Curves: Reply and Further Results," Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 2, No. 2, 1980.  187-191. 

"On the Estimation of Popular Price Expectations," (with R. P. H. Fishe), Journal of Econometrics, April 1981.  89-102. 

"Government Policy Dynamics in Structural and Reduced Form Estimation," (with T. D. Osborne and Jack Gelfand). Empirical Economics, 1980.  205-217. 

 "Do Economists Know More Than Laymen?  A Time Series Analysis of Experts' and Laymens' Expectations," (with R. P. H. Fishe).  Time Series Analysis  (Eds. O. D. Anderson and M. R. Perryman).  North-Holland Publishing Company, 1981. 

"Exact Sampling Distribution of Omitted Variable Estimator," (with T. Kinal), Economics Letters, December 1981.  121-127. 

"An Empirical Study on the Econometric Implications of Rational Expectations Hypothesis," Empirical Economics, December 1981.  111-127. 

"On the Constancy of Real Interest Rates and the Mundell Effect," (with J.S. Lee).  Journal of Banking and Finance, 1981, 557-573. 

"A Time Series Analysis of Popular Expectations Data on Inflation and Interest Rates," (with G. S. Maddala and R. P. H. Fishe).  Applied Time Series Analysis of Economic Data.  (Ed. A. Zellner).  U. S. Bureau of Census, 1984.  278-289.  (Followed by discussions by Sandy Grossman and Peter Sconfeld). 

"Specification Error Analysis with Stochastic Regressors," (with T. Kinal).  Econometrica, July 1983, 1209-1219. 

"An Econometric Study on the Dynamics of Urban Spatial Structure," (with R. Numrich).  Journal of Urban Economics, July 1983, 55-79. 

"On the Distribution Function of Alternative Model Selection Procedures (with T. Kinal), Economics Letters, 1984.  97-101. 

"Testing Rational Expectations Hypothesis in a Secondary Materials Market." (with C. Kinkley).  Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 1983, 282-291. 

"Estimated Income and Price Elasticities of Demand for Hospital Care Free of Quality Bias" (with S. Atri). Economics Letters, 1984.  387-392. 

"A Note on Selection of Regressors," (with T. Kinal).  International Economic Review.  1984, 625-629. 

"On the Variability of Real Interest Rates, Business Cycles and the Livingston Data" (with M. Zaporowski). Journal of Banking and Finance, 1984. 483-490. 

"On the Normality of Probability Distributions of Inflation and GNP Forecasts," (with C. Teigland), International Journal of Forecasting, 1986, No. 3, 269-279. 

"More Flexible Use of Survey Data on Expectations in Macroeconomic Models," (with M. Zaporowski).  Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 1987 (January), 69-76. 

"Equality of the Real Interest Rates: Dollar/Deutsche Mark, 1975-85. Invited paper, Proceeding of the ASA Meetings (Business and Economic Statistics), 1986, 92-95. 

"Quality Change and the Demand for Hospital Care: An Econometric Re-examination" Atlantic Economic Journal (with S. Atri), December 1986, 15-23. 

"Inflation Uncertainty and Interest Rates," (with C. Teigland and M. Zaporowski).  Invited paper, American Statistical Association Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section, 1987, 431-435. 

"A Model for Ex Ante Real Interest Rate and Derived Inflation Forecasts," (with T. Kinal). Journal of the American Statistical Association, September 1988, 665-673. 

"Interest Rates and the Subjective Probability Distribution of Price Forecasts", (with C. Teigland and M. Zaporowsky).  Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, May 1988, 233-247. 

"A Comparison of Alternative Real Rate Estimates," (with M. Zaporowski). Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, August 1988, pp. 303-312. 

"On the Estimation and Interpretation of Urban Density Gradients" (with R. H. Lankford and R. Numrich), Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, April 1989, pp. 227-235. 

Tests for Unbiasedness in the Long-run Using Survey Data" (with T. S. Chun), International Economic Journal, Summer 1989, pp.27-42. 

"A Leading Indicator of Inflation Based on Interest Rates," (with S. Dasgupta), in Leading Indicators: New Approaches and Forecasting Records (eds. K. Lahiri and G. Moore). Cambridge Univ. Press, 1990, pp. 339-353. 

"A Macroeconometric Model for Developing Countries" (with N. Hague and P. Montiel) IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 37, September 1990, pp. 537-559. 

"A Computational Algorithm for Multiple Equation Models with Panel Data" (with T. Kinal).  Economic Letters, October 1990, 143-146. 

"A Panel Data Analysis of Productive Efficiency in Freestanding Health Clinics" (with S. C. Johnson). Empirical Economics (Special issue on Panel Data).  January 1992, pp. 141-151.  Reprinted in Panel Data Analysis (eds. B. Raj and B. Baltagi), Physica-Verlag, 1992. 

"Efficient Estimation of Triangular Structural Models with Panel Data (with T. Kinal).  Journal of Quantitative Economics, July 1991, 265-271.  (Special issue in honor of Professor C. R. Rao). 

"A Comparative Study of Alternative Methods of Quantifying Qualitative Survey Responses Using NAPM Data," (with S. Dasgupta), Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, October 1992. 

"Panel Data Models with Rational Expectations" in Econometrics, Handbook of Statistics, Vol. 11 (eds. G. S. Maddala, C. R. Rao and H. D. Vinod). Ch.26, 721-737. North-Holland, (1993). 

"Estimation of Simultaneous Equations Models with Error Components with an Application to a Model of Developing Country Foreign Trade" (with T. Kinal).  Journal of Applied Econometrics, March 1993, 81-92. 

"On the Use of Dispersion Measures from NAPM Surveys in Business Cycle Forecasting" (with S. DasGupta). Journal of Forecasting, 1993, 239-253. 

"Estimation of a Macroeconomic Model with Rational Expectations and Capital Controls for Developing Countries" (with N. Hague and P. Montiel).  Journal of Development Economics, December 1993, 337-356. 

"Predicting Cyclical Turning Points With Leading Index in a Markov Switching Model" (with Jiazhuo Wang). Journal of Forecasting, 1994, 245-263. 

"Socioeconomic Factors and the Odds of Vaginal Birth After Cesarean Section" (with Dale King). JAMA-The Journal of the American Medical Association, August 1994, 524-529. 

"A Framework for Analyzing Survey Forecasts Using Three-Dimensional Panel Data" (with Anthony Davies). Journal of Econometrics, 1995, pp. 205-227. 

"Zinsdifferenzen als neue Frühindikatoren - Theorie und Evidenz" in Konjunktur - Indikatoren: Fakten, Analysen, Verwendung (Ed. K. H. Oppenländer), Oldenbourg Verlag, 1995, pp. 216-232. 

"Testing for Cointegration: Power Versus Frequency of Observation - Another View" (with Nlandu Mamingi). Economics Letters, 1995, pp. 121-125. 

"Risk comparisons Among Restricted Least Squares, Pre-Test and OLS Estimators Under Model Mis-Specification: Omission of Stochastic Regressors" (With M. Paul). Quantitative Economics- Theory and Practice (Essays in Honor of N. Bhattarcharya), Eds. S. R. Chakravarty et al. Allied Publishers, New Delhi.1998. pp. 269-302. 

"Granger Causality and Misspecified Vector Autoregressions" (with Nlandu Mamingi). Economic Theory, Trade and Quantitative Economics: Essays in Honor of Professor P. N. Roy (Eds. A. Banerjee and B. Chatterjee), Calcutta University Press, 1996, pp. 315-329. 

"Interest Rate Spreads as Predictors of Business Cycles" in Statistical Methods in Finance: Handbook of Statistics Vol. 14 (Eds. G.S.Maddala and C.R.Rao), North Holland, 1996, pp.297-315. 

"Modeling SSA's Sequential Disability Determination Process Using Matched SIPP Data" (with D.R. Vaughan and B. Wixon). Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 58, Winter 1995, pp. 3-42. 

"Relative Performance of Pre-Test Estimators in the Presence of a Unit Root" (with M. Paul), Proceedings of the Section on Bayesian Statistical Science, Annual Meeting of the American Statistical Association, 1996, pp. 238-243. 

"A Time Series and Cross Sectional Analysis of Consumer Sentiment and Its Components" (with Detelina Ivanova), In Social Structural Change - Consequences for Business Cycle Surveys, (Eds. K. H. Oppenländer and G. Poser), Aldershot: Ashgate Publishing, England, 1998, 337-362. 

"Re-examining the Rational Expectations Hypothesis Using Panel Data on Multiperiod Forecasts" (with A. Davies), Analysis of Panels and Limited Dependent Variable Models, (Eds. C. Hsiao et al.), Cambridge Univ. Press, 1999, 226-254. 

"Testing for Normality in a Probit Model with Double Selectivity" (with Jae Song), Economics Letters, October 1999, 33-39. 

"Interest Rate Spreads as Predictors of German Inflation and Business Cycle" (with D. Ivanova and F. Seitz), International Journal of Forecasting, 2000, 39-58. 

"MCMC Algorithms for Two Recent Bayesian Procedures for Limited Information Simultaneous Equations Models" (with C. Gao), Economics Letters 66, 2000, 121-126. 

"The ET Interview: Professor G.S. Maddala", Econometric Theory, October 1999, 753-776. 

"Further Consequences of Viewing LIML as an Iterated Aitken Estimator", (with C. Gao), Journal of Econometrics, 2000,187-202. 

"Degeneration of Feasible GLS to 2SLS in a Limited Information Simultaneous Equations Model" (with C. Gao). Econometric Theory; Problem 00.2.1, Vol. 16.2, 2000. p. 287: Solution in Vol. 17.2, 2001, p. 484. 

"The Effect of Smoking on Health Using Sequential Self-Selection Model", (with Jae Song). Health Economics, 2000, 491-511.  Reprinted in Econometric Analysis of Health Data (eds. A. Jones and O. O’Donnell, Chapter 4, pp. 51-69, John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, UK. 

"A Structural Model of Social Security's Disability Determination Process", with J. Hu,  D. R. Vaughan and B. Wixon), ORES Working Paper Series, Number 72, Social Security Administration, August 1997. Review of Economics and Statistics, (May 2001), 348-361.

“When Should We Care About Consumer Sentiment? Evidence From Linear and Markov-Switching Models” (with D. Ivanova), Indian Economic Review, Special Issue on Business Cycles, Jan.-June 2001, XXXVI, No. 1, 153-169. Reprinted in Business Cycles and Economic Growth – An Analysis Using Leading Indicators, Ed. P. Dua), Oxford.

“A Note on the Double k-Class Estimator in Simultaneous Equations” (with C. Gao), Journal of Econometrics, May 2001, Vol. 108 (1), 101-111.

“A Bayesian Analysis of Nested Logit Model by Markov Chain Monte Carlo” (with Jian Gao), Journal of Econometrics, November  2002, Vol. 111, No 1, 103-133.

"Monthly Output Index for the US Transportation Sector" (with H.O. Stekler, W. Yao, and P. Young), Journal of Transportation and Statistics, Vol. 6 (2/3), 2003, 1-41.

"An Econometric Analysis of Veterans' Health Care Utilization Using Two Part Models", (with G. Xing). Empirical Economics. Vol. 29, 431-449, 2004

"The Predictive Power of An Experimental Transportation Output Index" (with W. Yao), Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 11(3), 2004, 149-152.

“Transportation Sector and the Aggregate Economy: Their Linkages at the Business Cycle Frequencies”, (with W. Yao), Transportation Research Record, National Academies, 103-111, 2004.

“A Dynamic Factor Model of the Coincident Indicators for the U.S. Transportation Sector,” Applied Economics Letters, (with V. Yao), 11, 595-600, 2004.

 “An Econometric Framework for Analyzing GDP Forecasts of India and its Major Trading Partners”, Reserve Bank of India Macroeconomics Annual, 2004 (ed. S. Margit). 90-112, 2004.

“Modeling Medicare-Eligible Veterans’ Demand for Outpatient Services: A Two-Stage Approach” (with G. Xing). Health Services and Outcomes Research Methodology, 4, 221- 240, 2004. 

“ARCH Models for Multi-period Forecast Uncertainty: A Reality Check Using a Panel of Density Forecasts”, (with Fushang Liu). Advances in Econometrics, Volume 20: Econometric Analysis of Economic and Financial Time Series, eds: T. Fomby and D. Terrell (2005), 321-363.  

"How Quickly Do Forecasters Incorporate News? Evidence from Cross-country Surveys", (with G. Isikler and P. Loungani), Journal of Applied Econometrics, 21, 2006, 703-725.

"Modeling Multi-period Inflation Uncertainty Using a Panel of Density Forecasts" (with F. Liu), Journal of Applied Econometrics, 21, 2006, 1199-1220.

"Subjective Probability Forecasts for Recessions: Evaluation and Guidelines for Use", (with George Wang), Business Economics, April 2006, 26-35.

"Frequential Test for the Validity of Subjective Probability Forecasts of GDP Declines" (with George Wang), Forecasting Letters 1, 2006.

"The Value of Probability Forecasts as Predictors of Cyclical Downturns", (with J. Wang), Applied Economics Letters, 14, 2007, 11-14.

"Economic Indicators for the U.S. Transportation Sector" (with Vincent Yao), Transportation Research - A, 40, 2006, 872-887.

"How Far Ahead Can We Forecast? Evidence from Cross-Country Surveys" (with G. Isiklar), International Journal of Forecasting, 23, 2007, 167-187.

Awarded best IJF paper during 2006-2007.

"Income Related Health Disparity and Its Determinants in New York State: Racial/Ethnic and Geographical Comparisons" (with Z. Pulungan). In Toward Equity in Health: A New Global Approach to Inequities in Health, (Ed. Barbara Wallace), Springer, 2007, pp. 97-127.

"G.S. Maddala, 1933-1999", Forthcoming in New Palgrave: A Directory of Economics (2nd. edition.), Eds., L. Blume and S. Durlauf. 2007.

“Evolution of Forecast Disagreement in a Bayesian Learning Model”, (with X. Sheng), Journal of Econometrics, 144, 2008, 325-340.

“A Model of Social Security Disability Insurance Using Matched SIPP/Administrative Data”, (with J. Song and B. Wixon), Journal of Econometrics, 145, 2008, 4-20.

“Estimating International Transmission of Shocks Using GDP Forecasts: India and Its Trading Partners”, (with G. Isiklar). Development Macroeconomics , Essays in Memory of Anita Ghatak (Eds. S. Ghatak and P. Levine), Routledge, 2009, 123-162.

"Comment on Forecasting Economic and Financial Variables with Global VARs" by M. Hashem Pesaran, T. Schuermann and L. V. Smith. International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 25, Issue 4, October-December 2009, 689-692.

"Editorial: Applied Bayesian Forecasting in Economics", (with G. Martin), International Journal of Forecasting, Special Issue, Vol. 26, No. 2, 2010, 211-213.

"Learning and Heterogeneity in GDP and Inflation Forecasts", (with X. Sheng), International Journal of Forecasting (special issue on Bayesian Forecasting in Economics), 26, 2010, 265-292.

"An Assessment of Growth Forecasts for India", (with P. Loungani), Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. XLV, No. 3, January 16, 2010, 61-65.

"Measuring Forecast Uncertainty by Disagreement: The Missing Link", Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2010, 25: 514-538.

“On Estimating the Failure Probability of Hedge Funds”, (with H. Shawky and W. Zhao). In Research in Finance, Vol. 27, (ed. J.W. Kensinger). Emerald Books. 2011, 85-119.

“Analyzing Three-Dimensional Panel Data of Forecasts”, (with A. Davies and X. Sheng). Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting, eds. M.P. Clements and D.F. Hendry, 2010. Oxford University Press, 473-495.

“Limits to Economic Forecasting”, Chapter 3 in Advances in Economic Forecasting, (ed. M. L.  Higgins) W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, Kalamazoo, MI., 2011, 25-49.

“Editorial”, (with E. G. Tsionas and W. Greene), Special issue on Advances in Applied Econometrics, Journal of Probability and Statistics, 2011.

“Comment” on Forecast Rationality Tests based on Multi-Horizon Bounds by A. Patton and A. Timmermann, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 30 (1), 2012, 20-25.

“Racial/Ethnic and Education-Related Disparities in Control of Risk Factors for Cardiovascular Disease among Individuals with Diabetes” (with P. Chatterji and H. Joo), Diabetes Care, 35 (1), 2012, 305-312.

"Should Transportation Output be Included as Part of the Coincident Indicators System?"(with W. Yao), OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Analysis and Measurement, 2012/1, 1-24.

Nowcasting US GDP: The role of ISM Business Surveys” (with G. Monokroussos), International Journal of Forecasting, Special issue on Flash Indicators, 29 (4), 2013, 644–658.

“The dynamics of income-related health inequality among US children”, (with P. Chatterji and J. Song), Health Economics, 2012.

“Beware of being unaware: Racial/ethnic disparities in chronic illness in the U.S.” (with P. Chatterji and H.S. Joo), Health Economics. 2012 (Vol. 21), 1040-1060.

“Evaluating probability forecasts for GDP declines using alternative methodologies”, (with J. G Wang), International Journal of Forecasting, 2013, 29(1), 175-190.

“The yield spread puzzle and the information content of SPF forecasts”, (with G. Monokroussos and Y. Zhao). 2013, Economics Letters 18(1), 219-221.

“Forecasting Binary Outcomes” (with Liu Yang), Forthcoming in Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Vol. 2 (Eds. G. Elliott and A. Timmermann), 2013

“Modeling Hedge Fund Returns: Selection, Non-linearity and Managerial Efficiency”, (with H. Shawky and Y. Zhao), Managerial and Decision Economics, special issue on Entrepreneurship, Innovation and Growth, Article first published online: 23 SEP 2013. DOI: 10.1002/mde.2652.

“Identifying the Mechanisms for Workplace Burden of Psychiatric Illness” (with S. Banerjee and P. Chatterji). Medical Care, 2013, 52 (2), pp. 112-120.

“Birthweight and Academic Achievement in Childhood”, (with P. Chatterji, and D. Kim), Health Economics, 23 (9), 1013-1035, 2014.

"Fetal Growth and Neurobehavioral Outcomes in Childhood" (with P. Chatterji and D. Kim), Economics and Human Biology, Vol. 15, December 2014, 187-200.

"Quantifying Survey Expectations: A Critical Review and Generalization of the Carlson-Parkin Method, (with Y. Zhao), International Journal of Forecasting, 2015, 31, 51-62.

“Testing the Value of Probability Forecasts for Calibrated Combining”, (with H. Peng and Y. Zhao).  International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 31 (1) 2015, 113-129.

“Editorial: Global Economic Linkages and Corporate Earnings”, (with J. Guerard), International Journal of Forecasting, 31, (2), 2015, 392–398.


“Further Analysis of The Conference Board’s New Leading Economic Index” (with Y. Liu). International Journal of Forecasting, 31 (2), 2015, 446–453.

“Examining the Education Gradient in Chronic Illness” (with P. Chatterji and H. S. Joo), Forthcoming in Education Economics. DOI:10.1080/09645292.2014.944858

“A Non-linear Forecast Combination Procedure for Binary Outcomes” (with Yang Liu), Forthcoming in Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, Special issue in honor of James Ramsey.

“On-line Learning and Forecast Combination in Unbalanced Panels” (with H. Peng and Y. Zhao), forthcoming in Econometric Reviews.

“Confidence Bands for ROC Curves with Serially Dependent Data” (with Liu Yang), Forthcoming in Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, DOI:10.1080/07350015.2015.1073593.


“Forecasting Consumption: The Role of Consumer Confidence in Real Time with Many Predictors” (with G. Monokroussos and Y. Zhao), Forthcoming in Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2015.


“Asymptotic Variance of Brier (Skill) Score in the Presence of Serial Correlation” (with Liu Yang). Forthcoming in Economics Letters.


“Effects of Psychiatric Disorders on Labor Market Outcomes: A Latent Variable Approach Using Multiple Clinical Indicators” (with S. Banerjee and P. Chatterji). Forthcoming in Health Economics.