Ryan Torn Collaborates with NCAR to Develop Numerical Weather Models

In early August, the National Hurricane Center designated two numerical weather models as semi-operational, meaning that the output from these models would be available to hurricane specialists to make their operational forecasts.  This process involved running these computer models over many different hurricanes and many different times, and comparing the model's track and intensity forecast against the best estimates of these quantities.  One of the two models is the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Advanced Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (AHW) model.  Over the past two hurricane seasons, the initial conditions for that model have been generated using an advanced technique that combines the information from observations and a previous computer model forecast.  The application of this technique to hurricanes has been developed over the past three years by Ryan Torn, Assistant Professor in Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences in collaboration with scientists at NCAR.  Current forecasts from this system are available at: http://www.wrf-model.org/plots/realtime_hurricane4km.php