Professor Kajal Lahiri

An article by Distinguished Professor of Economics, Kajal Lahiri, and his former student, Gultekin Isiklar (Ph.D. in 2005), was selected from among nearly 150 entries that were published in the International Journal of Forecasting (Elsevier) during 2006-2007 to win the Best Paper Award.  Their paper is titled "How Far Ahead Can we Forecast?" and has been published in 2007 in Vol. 23 (pp. 167-87) of the Journal.

Using different methodologies, Drs. Lahiri and Isiklar have demonstrated a startling finding, i.e.; that forecasts of real GDP by professional forecasters have no value beyond an 18 months horizon.  The award was announced at the 29th International Symposium on Forecasting (June 21-23, 2009) in Hong Kong, and came with a $1000 money prize. Congratulations to Drs. Lahiri and Isiklar for their outstanding work.