Measurement of Expectations, Survey Data and Macro Models:


"Inflationary Expectations: Their Formation and Interest Rate Effects," American Economic Review, March 1976, 124-131.

"Inflationary Expectations and the U.S. Wage-Price Dynamics," Proceedings of the Econometric Society European Meeting 1979, Selected Econometric Papers in Memory of Stefan Valavanis, (ed. E. G. Charatsis), North-Holland Publishing Co., 1981, 421-436.

"A Joint Study of Expectations Formation and the Shifting Phillips Curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, July 1977, 347-359.

"Tests of Rational Expectations and the Fisher Effect," (with J. S. Lee), Southern Economic Journal, October 1979.

"On the Constancy of Real Interest Rates," Economics Letters, 3, 1979, 45-48.

"Rational Expectations and the Short-Run Phillips Curves," (with J. S. Lee), Journal of Macroeconomics, Spring 1979, 167-190.

"Rational Expectations and the Short-run Phillips Curves: Reply and Further Results," Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 2, No. 2, 1980, 187-191.

"Do Economists Know More Than Laymen?  A Time Series Analysis of Experts' and Laymen's Expectations," (with R. P. H. Fishe).  Time Series Analysis (Eds. O. D. Anderson and M. R. Perryman).  North-Holland Publishing Company, 1981.

"An Empirical Study on the Econometric Implications of Rational Expectations Hypothesis," Empirical Economics, December 1981, 111-127.

"On the Constancy of Real Interest Rates and the Mundell Effect," (with J.S. Lee). Journal of Banking and Finance, 1981, 557-573.

"A Time Series Analysis of Popular Expectations Data on Inflation and Interest Rates," (with G. S. Maddala and R. P. H. Fishe).  Applied Time Series Analysis of Economic Data.  (Ed. A. Zellner). U. S. Bureau of Census, 1984, 278-289. (with discussions).

"On the Variability of Real Interest Rates, Business Cycles and the Livingston Data," (with M.Zaporowski).  Journal of Banking and Finance, 1984, 483-490.  

"On the Normality of Probability Distributions of Inflation and GNP Forecasts," (with C.Teigland), International Journal of Forecasting, 1986, No. 3, 269-279.

"More Flexible Use of Survey Data on Expectations in Macroeconomic Models," (with M. Zaporowski).  Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 1987 (January), 69-76.

"Equality of the Real Interest Rates: Dollar/Deutsche Mark, 1975-85,” Invited paper, Proceeding of the ASA Meetings (Business and Economic Statistics), 1986, 92-95.

"Inflation Uncertainty and Interest Rates," (with C. Teigland and M. Zaporowski).  Invited paper, American Statistical Association: Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section, 1987, 431-435.

"A Model for Ex Ante Real Interest Rate and Derived Inflation Forecasts," (with T. Kinal). Journal of the American Statistical Association, September 1988, 665-673.

"Interest Rates and the Subjective Probability Distribution of Price Forecasts", (with C. Teigland and M. Zaporowski). Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, May 1988, 233-247.

"A Comparison of Alternative Real Rate Estimates," (with M. Zaporowski). Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, August 1988, 303-312.

“Tests for Unbiasedness in the Long-run Using Survey Data," (with T. S. Chun), International Economic Journal, Summer 1989, 27-42.

"On the Use of Dispersion Measures from NAPM Surveys in Business Cycle Forecasting," (with S. Dasgupta).  Journal of Forecasting, 1993, 239-253.

"A Framework for Analyzing Survey Forecasts Using Three-Dimensional Panel Data," (with A. Davies). Journal of Econometrics, 1995, 205-227.

"Re-examining the Rational Expectations Hypothesis Using Panel Data on Multi-Period Forecasts," (with A. Davies), Analysis of Panels and Limited Dependent Variable Models, (Eds. C. Hsiao et al.), Cambridge Univ. Press, 1999, 226-254.

"How Quickly Do Forecasters Incorporate News? Evidence from Cross-country Surveys", (with G. Isikler and P. Loungani), Journal of Applied Econometrics, 21, 2006, 703-725.

"How Far Ahead Can We Forecast? Evidence from Cross-Country Surveys" (with G. Isiklar), International Journal of Forecasting, 23, 2007, 167-187.

Awarded best IJF paper during 2006-2007.

“Evolution of Forecast Disagreement in a Bayesian Learning Model”, (with X. Sheng), Journal of Econometrics, 144, 2008, 325-340.

“A Model of Social Security Disability Insurance Using Matched SIPP/Administrative Data”, (with J. Song and B. Wixon), Journal of Econometrics, 145, 2008, 4-20.

“Estimating International Transmission of Shocks Using GDP Forecasts: India and Its Trading Partners”, (with G. Isiklar). Development Macroeconomics , Essays in Memory of Anita Ghatak (Eds. S. Ghatak and P. Levine), Routledge, 2009, 123-162.

"Comment on Forecasting Economic and Financial Variables with Global VARs" by M. Hashem Pesaran, T. Schuermann and L. V. Smith. International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 25, Issue 4, October-December 2009, 689-692.

"Editorial: Applied Bayesian Forecasting in Economics", (with G. Martin), International Journal of Forecasting, Special Issue, Vol. 26, No. 2, 2010, 211-213.

"Learning and Heterogeneity in GDP and Inflation Forecasts", (with X. Sheng), International Journal of Forecasting (special issue on Bayesian Forecasting in Economics), 26, 2010, 265-292.

"An Assessment of Growth Forecasts for India", (with P. Loungani), Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. XLV, No. 3, January 16, 2010, 61-65.

"Measuring Forecast Uncertainty by Disagreement: The Missing Link", Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2010, 25: 514-538.

“Analyzing Three-Dimensional Panel Data of Forecasts”, (with A. Davies and X. Sheng). Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting, eds. M.P. Clements and D.F. Hendry, 2010. Oxford University Press, 473-495.

Nowcasting US GDP: The role of ISM Business Surveys” (with G. Monokroussos), International Journal of Forecasting, Special issue on Flash Indicators, 29 (4), 2013, 644–658.

“Forecasting Consumption: The Role of Consumer Confidence in Real Time with Many Predictors” (with G. Monokroussos and Y. Zhao), Forthcoming in Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2015.