Business Cycles Measurement and Forecasting:


"Government Policy Dynamics in Structural and Reduced Form Estimation," (with T. D. Osborne and Jack Gelfand).  Empirical Economics, 1980.  205-217.

"On the Variability of Real Interest Rates, Business Cycles and the Livingston Data," (with M. Zaporowski).  Journal of Banking and Finance, 1984, 483-490.

“Introduction,” (with G.H. Moore), Chapter 1 in Leading Indicators: New Approaches and Forecasting Records (eds. K. Lahiri and G. Moore). Cambridge Univ. Press, 1990, 1-12.

"A Leading Indicator of Inflation Based on Interest Rates," (with S. Dasgupta), in Leading Indicators: New Approaches and Forecasting Records (eds. K. Lahiri and G. Moore). Cambridge Univ. Press, 1990, 339-353.

"Predicting Cyclical Turning Points with Leading Index in a Markov Switching Model," (with J. Wang). Journal of Forecasting, 1994, 245-263.

"Zinsdifferenzen als neue Frühindikatoren - Theorie und Evidenz," in Konjunktur - Indikatoren: Fakten, Analysen, Verwendung (Ed. K. H. Oppenländer), Oldenbourg Verlag, 1995, pp. 216- 232. 

"Interest Rate Spreads as Predictors of Business Cycles," in Statistical Methods in Finance: Handbook of Statistics Vol. 14 (Eds. G.S.Maddala and C.R.Rao), North Holland, 1996, 297-15.

"A Time Series and Cross Sectional Analysis of Consumer Sentiment and Its Components,"(with D. Ivanova), In Social Structural Change - Consequences for Business Cycle Surveys,(Eds.  K. H. Oppenländer and G. Poser), Aldershot: Ashgate Publishing, UK, 1998, 337-362.

"Interest Rate Spreads as Predictors of German Inflation and Business Cycle," (with D. Ivanova and F. Seitz), International Journal of Forecasting, 2000, 39-58.

“When Should We Care About Consumer Sentiment? Evidence From Linear and Markov-Switching Models,” (with D. Ivanova), Indian Economic Review, Special Issue on Business Cycles, Jan.-June 2001, 36, No. 1, 153-169.

“Introduction - Reassessing Modern Business Cycles,” (with K. Holden and P.A. Klein), International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 17, 2001, 329-332.

"The Value of Probability Forecasts as Predictors of Cyclical Downturns", (with J. Wang), Applied Economics Letters, 14, 2007, 11-14.

“Estimating International Transmission of Shocks Using GDP Forecasts: India and Its Trading Partners”, (with G. Isiklar). Forthcoming in Development Macroeconomics, Essays in Memory of Anita Ghatak (Eds. S. Ghatak and P. Levine), Routledge, 2009, 123-162.