Downloadable Papers


"A Structural Model of  Social Security’s Disability Determination Process", with J. Hu, D. R. Vaughan, and B. Wixon). Review of Economics and Statistics, May 2001. 

"A Comparison of Some Recent Bayesian and Classical Procedures for Simultaneous Equation Models with Weak Instruments", (with C. Gao).  Figures and Tables

"Further Consequences of Viewing LIML as an Iterated Aitken Estimator", (with C. Gao). Journal of Econometrics, 2000Figures and Tables

"Value of Sample Separation Information in a Sequential Probit Model: Another Look at SSA's Disability Determination Process", (with C. Gao and B. Wixon).  Figure 2 and Figure 3

"The Effect of Smoking on Health  Using a Sequential Self-selection Model", (with Jae Song). Health Economics, 2000.

"An Econometric Analysis of Veterans' Health Care Utilization Using Two Part Models", (with G. Xing). Empirical Economics. Vol. 29.

"Modeling Medicare-eligible Veterans' Demand for Outpatient Health Care Services: A Two-Stage Approach," (with G. Xing). Health Services and Outcomes Research Methodology. Vol. 4, 2004.

"Bayesian Analysis of Nested Logit Model By Markov Chain Monte Carlo ",  (With Jian Gao).
Journal of Econometrics, November  2002, Vol. 111, No 1.

"A Note on the Double k-class Estimator in Simultaneous Equations", (with C. Gao). Journal of Econometrics, May 2001, Vol. 108 (1).

"Monthly Output Index for the US Transportation Sector", (with H. Stekler, W. Yao and P. Young) Journal of Transportation and Statistics, US Department of Transportation, January 2004.

“Transportation Sector and the Aggregate Economy: Their Linkages at the Business Cycle Frequencies”, (with W. Yao). Transportation Research Record, National Academies, 2004.

“Economic Indicators for the U.S. Transportation Sector”, (with W. Yao). Transportation Research-A, 2006.

“How far ahead can we forecast? Evidence from cross-country surveys”, (with G. Isiklar). International Journal of Forecasting, 23, 2007, 167-187.

“How quickly do forecaster incorporate news? Evidence from cross-country surveys”, (with G. Isiklar and P. Laungani).  Programs, Data, and Output. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 21, 2006, 703-725.

“ARCH models for multi-period forecast uncertainty - A reality check using a panel of density forecasts”, (with F. Liu). Advances in Econometrics, Volume 20: Econometric Analysis of Economic and Financial Time Series, eds: T. Fomby and D. Terrell (2005), 321-363.

“Modeling multi-period inflation uncertainty using a panel of density forecasts”, (with F. Liu). Journal of Applied Econometrics, 21, 2006, 1199-1220.

“Subjective probability forecasts for recessions: evaluation and guidelines for use”, (with J.G. Wang). Business Economics, April 2006, 26-35.

“Evaluating probability forecasts for GDP Declines”, (with J.G. Wang).  

"Income Related Health Disparity and Its Determinants in New York State: Racial/Ethnic and Geographical Comparisons" (with Z. Pulungan). In Toward Equity in Health: A New Global Approach to Inequities in Health, (Ed. Barbara Wallace), Springer, 2007, pp. 97-127.

"Evolution of Forecast Disagreement in a Bayesian Learning Model", (with X. Sheng), Forthcoming in Journal of Econometrics.