Estimating HIV Prevalence With the CDC's New Born Seroprevalence Model

The National New Born Seroprevalence Survey tested blood from all births in a given year for HIV status. The result was the seroprevalence for all mothers in the given year. A model was designed by Dr. John Karon, Centers for Disease Control that employed the results of the New Born Seroprevalence Survey, and in a series of steps, estimated

HIV prevalence for both men and women. The work presented here elaborates and extends the CDC's model so that variance estimates for HIV prevalence at each step are obtained, and compares the results of the CDC's model to the estimates of HIV prevalence obtained from other modeling efforts for New York City, 1990.