John C. Bailar III, MD, PhD, is Professor Emeritus, University of Chicago.


He received the MD degree from Yale University and the PhD in Statistics from American University. He was at the National Cancer Institute 1956-1980, where he served in several roles including Chief of the Demography Section, Director of the Third National Cancer Survey, and Editor of the Journal of the National Cancer Institute. Since then, he has been on the faculty at Harvard, McGill University (including Chair, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics), and the University of Chicago (including Chair, Department of Health Studies). He was a MacArthur Fellow 1990-1995 and is an elected member of the Institute of Medicine, the International Statistical Institute, and the Collegium Ramazzini. His professional interests have centered on the causes and prevention of cancer and, more recently, the broad role of statistics as the science of the scientific method. He has published about three hundred scientific papers and several books, including (with Fred Mosteller) The Medical Uses of Statistics.

Abstract of his presentation

The field of statistics is often misunderstood as having a tight focus on computation and algebra.  Statistical computations do appear in many places, but much more important are the contributions to the general  structure of science and scientific inference.  The applied statistician  had broad experience with such matters as asking the right questions, asking them in ways that can be answered, drawing up experimental protocols, monitoring and improving the quality of date, reducing large  data files to something that is both meaningful and understandable, drawing inferences from the data, and generalizing results to subjects and situations not actually observed.  This experience can then be applied to a broad range of problems of great national importance and interest.  The talk will include examples from such areas as trends in cancer mortality, compulsive gambling, the Gulf War Syndrome, the distribution of federal  tax funds to states to support specific programs, and estimating the human effects of toxic chemicals when all of the data are from animal experiments.
 


A few papers indicating some of Dr. Bailar's interests.

  1. Bailar JC III, Gornik HL. Cancer undefeated. New England Journal of Medicine, 336:1569-1574 (1997).

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  2. Bailar JC III. The practice of meta-analysis. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 48(1):149-157 (1995).

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  3. Bailar JC III. Current knowledge about the cancer latent period: The contribution of epidemiology. In: Maltoni C., et al., Eds., The Scientific Bases of Cancer Chemoprevention. Proceedings of the International Forum on the Scientific Bases of Cancer Chemoprevention, 31 March - 2 April 1996,     Bologna, Italy. Elsevier: 65-71 (1996).

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  4. Bailar JC III (Chair), Angell M, Boots S, et al. Ethics and Policy in Scientific Publication, Council of Biology Editors, Inc., Chicago: xiii + 290 pp     (1991).

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  5. Bailar JC III, Mosteller F, Eds. Medical Uses of Statistics, second edition. New England Journal of Medicine Press, Boston: xxvii + 449 pp (1992). Bailar JC 3rd, Bailer AJ. Common themes at the workshop on uncertainty in the risk assessment of environmental and occupational hazards. Ann N Y Acad Sci 1999;895:373-6
  6. Bailar JC 3rd, Bailer AJ. Risk assessment--the mother of all uncertainties. Disciplinary perspectives on uncertainty in risk assessment. Ann N Y Acad Sci 1999;895:273-85
    1. Bailar JC 3rd. Passive smoking, coronary heart disease, and meta-analysis.[editorial; comment] [see comments]. N Engl J Med 1999 Mar 25;340(12):958-9

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    2. Forrester JE, Bailar JC 3rd, Esrey SA, Jose MV, Castillejos BT, Ocampo G. Randomised trial of albendazole and pyrantel in symptomless trichuriasis in children [see comments]. Lancet 1998 Oct 3;352(9134):1103-8

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    3. Bailar JC 3rd. Diagnostic drift in the reporting of cancer incidence [letter;,comment]. J Natl Cancer Inst 1998 Jun 3;90(11):863-4

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    4. Bailar JC 3rd, Gornik HL.Trends in cancer mortality: perspectives from Italy and the United States. Med Lav 1997 Jul-Aug;88(4):274-86

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    5. Wegman DH, Woods NF, Bailar JC. Invited commentary: how would we know a Gulf War syndrome if we saw one? [comment]. Am J Epidemiol 1997 Nov 1;146(9):704-11; discussion 712

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    6. Bailar JC 3rd. The promise and problems of meta-analysis [editorial; comment] [see,comments]. N Engl J Med 1997 Aug 21;337(8):559-61

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    7. Bailar JC 3rd,Gornik HL. Cancer undefeated [see comments]. N Engl J Med 1997 May 29;336(22):1569-74

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    8. Bailar JC 3rd, MacMahon B. Randomization in the Canadian National Breast Screening Study: a review for evidence of subversion [see comments]. CMAJ 1997 Jan 15;156(2):193-9

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    9. Bailar JC 3rd. Surgery for early breast cancer--can less be more? [editorial;,comment] [see comments]. N Engl J Med 1995 Nov 30;333(22):1496-8

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    10. Bailar JC 3rd. The Devi case and more [letter; comment]. Science 1995 Aug 25;269(5227):1035

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    11. Bailar JC 3rd. Monitoring human tissues for toxic substances: a follow-up to the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) report. Environ Health Perspect 1995 Apr;103 Suppl 3:81-4

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    12. Macarthur C, Foran PJ, Bailar JC 3rd. Qualitative assessment of studies included in a meta-analysis: DES,and the risk of pregnancy loss. J Clin Epidemiol 1995 Jun;48(6):739-47

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    13. Bailar JC 3rd. The practice of meta-analysis. [Review] [13 refs]. J Clin Epidemiol 1995 Jan;48(1):149-57

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    14. Bailar JC 3rd. Preliminary reports: when is the evidence strong enough to change practice? [editorial; comment]. J Clin Epidemiol 1994 Mar;47(3):305-6

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    15. Sexton K, Gong H Jr, Bailar JC 3d, Ford JG, Gold DR, Lambert WE,Utell MJ. Air pollution health risks: do class and race matter?. [Review] [140,refs]. Toxicol Ind Health 1993 Sep-Oct;9(5):843-78

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    16. Bailar JC 3d. What if Americans ate less fat? [letter; comment]. JAMA 1992 Jan 15;267(3):361; discussion 363-4

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    17. Bailar JC 3d. How dangerous is dioxin? [editorial; comment] [see comments]. N Engl J Med 1991 Jan 24;324(4):260-2

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    18. Bailar JC. Death from all cancers. Trends in sixteen countries. Ann N Y Acad Sci 1990;609:49-56; discussion 56-7

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    19. Bailar JC 3d. Recent trends in cancer. Ann N Y Acad Sci 1990;610:205-11

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    20. Bailar JC 3d, Crouch EA, Shaikh R, Spiegelman D. One-hit models of carcinogenesis: conservative or not? [see,comments]. Risk Anal 1988 Dec;8(4):485-97

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    21. Marks RG, Dawson-Saunders EK, Bailar JC, Dan BB, Verran JA. Interactions between statisticians and biomedical journal editors. Stat Med 1988 Oct;7(10):1003-11

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    22. Bailar JC 3d. Mammography before age 50 years? [editorial]. JAMA 1988 Mar 11;259(10):1548-9

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    23. Bailar JC 3d, Mosteller F. Guidelines for statistical reporting in articles for medical journals. Amplifications and explanations. Ann Intern Med 1988 Feb;108(2):266-73

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    24. Bailar JC 3d, Smith EM. Have we reduced the risk of getting cancer or of dying from cancer? An update. [Review] [11 refs]. Med Oncol Tumor Pharmacother 1987;4(3-4):193-8

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    25. Bailar JC 3d, Smith EM. Progress against cancer?. N Engl J Med 1986 May 8;314(19):1226-32

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    26. Bailar JC 3d,Science, statistics, and deception. Ann Intern Med 1986 Feb;104(2):259-60

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    27. Bailar JC 3d. When research results are in conflict [editorial]. N Engl J Med 1985 Oct 24;313(17):1080-1

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    28. Bailar JC 3d,Thomas SR. What are we doing when we think we are doing risk analysis?. Basic Life Sci 1985;33:65-76

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    29. Bailar JC 3d,Patterson K. The need for a research agenda. N Engl J Med 1985 Mar 7;312(10):654-7

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    30. Bailar JC 3d, Louis TA, Lavori PW, Polansky M. A classification for biomedical research reports. N Engl J Med 1984 Dec 6;311(23):1482-7

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    31. Bailar JC 3d,Screening for lung cancer--where are we now? Am Rev Respir Dis 1984 Oct;130(4):541-2

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    32. Bailar JC 3d, Louis TA, Lavori PW, Polansky M. Studies without internal controls. N Engl J Med 1984 Jul 19;311(3):156-62

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    33. Sutherland JV,Bailar JC 3d. The multihit model of carcinogenesis: etiologic implications for,colon cancer. J Chronic Dis 1984;37(6):465-80

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    34. Louis TA, Lavori PW, Bailar JC 3d, Polansky M. Crossover and self-controlled designs in clinical research. N Engl J Med 1984 Jan 5;310(1):24-31

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    35. Lavori PW, Louis TA, Bailar JC 3d, Polansky M. Designs for experiments--parallel comparisons of treatment. N Engl J Med 1983 Nov 24;309(21):1291-9

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    36. Bailar JC 3d. Cigarettes, ulcerative colitis, and inferences from uncontrolled data. [editorial]. N Engl J Med 1983 Feb 3;308(5):275-7

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    37. Zippin C, Lum D, Kohn HI, Bailar JC 3d. Late effects of radiation therapy for cancer of the uterine cervix. Cancer Detect Prev 1981;4(1-4):487-92

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    38. Jablon S,Bailar JC 3d. The contribution of ionizing radiation to cancer mortality in the United States. Prev Med 1980 Mar;9(2):219-26

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    39. Bailar JC 3d. Cause and effect in epidemiology: What do we know about hypertriglyceridemia? [editorial]. N Engl J Med 1980 Jun 19;302(25):1417-8

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    40. Bailar JC 3d. Dietary fat and cancer trends--a further critique [letter]. Fed Proc 1979 Oct;38(11):2435-6

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    41. Bailar JC 3d.The case for cancer prevention. J Natl Cancer Inst 1979 Apr;62(4):727-31

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    42. Bennett JM, Silber R, Ezdinli E, Levitt M, Oken M, Bakemeier RF, Bailar JC, Carbone PP. Phase II study of adriamycin and bleomycin in patients with multiple myeloma. Cancer Treat Rep 1978 Sep;62(9):1367-9

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    43. Bailar JC 3d. Mammographic screening: a reappraisal of benefits and risks. Clin Obstet Gynecol 1978 Mar;21(1):1-14

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    44. Bailar JC 3d. Screening for early breast cancer: pros and cons. Cancer 1977 Jun;39(6 Suppl):2783-95

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    45. Bailar JC 3d. Mammography-a time for caution. JAMA 1977 Mar 7;237(10):997-8

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    46. Bailar JC III. Clinical biostatistics. Bailar's laws of data analysis. Clin Pharmacol Ther 1976 Jul;20(1):113-9

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    47. Bailar JC 3d. Mammography: a contrary view. [Review] [49 refs],Ann Intern Med 1976 Jan;84(1):77-84

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    48. Byar DP, Huse R, Bailar JC 3d. An exponential model relating censored survival data and concomitant information for prostatic cancer patients. J Natl Cancer Inst 1974 Feb;52(2):321-6

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    49. Dunham LJ, Bailar JC 3d, Laqueur GL. Histologically diagnosed cancers in 693 Indians of the United, tates, 1950-65. J Natl Cancer Inst 1973 May;50(5):1119-27

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    50. Bailar JC 3d. The Cancer Control Program of the National Cancer Institute. CA Cancer J Clin 1973 Mar-Apr;23(2):106-10

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    51. Zippin C, Bailar JC 3d, Kohn HI, Lum D, Eisenberg H. Radiation therapy for cervical cancer: late effects on life span and on leukemia incidence. Cancer 1971 Oct;28(4):937-42

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    52. Schoenberg BS, Bailar JC 3d. Uterine malignancies of unspecified origin. Arch Environ Health 1971 Jul;23(1):77-81

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    53. Schoenberg BS,Bailar JC 3d,Fraumeni JF Jr. Certain mortality patterns of esophageal cancer in the United States, 1930-67. J Natl Cancer Inst 1971 Jan;46(1):63-73

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    54. Mantel N,Bailar JC 3d. A class of permutational and multinomial tests arising in epidemiological research. Biometrics 1970 Dec;26(4):687-700

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    55. Bailar JC 3d,Devesa SS. The third national cancer survey. Proc Natl Cancer Conf 1970;6:259-62

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    56. Bailar JC 3d,Byar DP. Estrogen treatment for cancer of the prostate. Early results with 3 doses of diethylstilbestrol and placebo. Cancer 1970 Aug;26(2):257-61

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    57. Bailar JC 3d, Eisenberg H, Mantel N. Time between pairs of leukemia cases. Cancer 1970 Jun;25(6):1301-3

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    58. Dunham LJ,Bailar JC 3d.World maps of cancer mortality rates and frequency ratios. 3 and 4. IMS Ind Med Surg 1970 Jun;39(6):259-75

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    59. Bailar JC 3d. Estrogen therapy for prostatic cancer.  Prog Clin Cancer 1970;4:387-92

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    60. Goldenberg IS, Janus ZL, Bailar JC 3d, Eisenberg H. Survival patterns of elderly women with breast cancer. Arch Surg 1969 Nov;99(5):649-51

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    61. Bailar JC,Grant RN. The Third National Cancer Survey. CA Cancer J Clin 1969 Jul-Aug;19(4):228-31

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    62. Scotto J, Bailar JC 3d. Rigoni-Stern and medical statistics.  A nineteenth-century approach to cancer research. J Hist Med Allied Sci 1969 Jan;24(1):65-75

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    63. King H,Bailar JC 3d. Mortality among Lutheran clergymen. Milbank Mem Fund Q 1968 Oct;46(4):527-48

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    64. Dunham LJ,Bailar JC 3d. World maps of cancer mortality rates and frequency ratios. J Natl Cancer Inst 1968 Jul;41(1):155-203

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    65. Janus ZL, Bailar JC 3d, Eisenberg H. Blood group and uterine cancer. Am J Epidemiol 1967 Nov;86(3):569-78

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    66. Bailar JC 3d,Gurian J. The medical significance of date of birth. Eugen Q 1967 Jun;14(2):89-102

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    67. Bailar JC 3d. Thromboembolism and oestrogen therapy. Lancet 1967 Sep 9;2(7515):560

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    68. King H, Bailar JC 3d. Epidemiology of urinary bladder cancer. A review of selected literature. [Review] [134 refs]. J Chronic Dis 1966 Jul;19(7):735-72

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    69. Hertz R,Bailar JC 3d. Estrogen-progestogen combinations for contraception. [Review] [62,refs] JAMA 1966 Nov 28;198(9):1000-6

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    70. Bailar JC 3,Young JL Jr. Oregon malignancy pattern and radioisotope storage. Public Health Rep 1966 Apr;81(4):311-7

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    71. Bailar JC 3d,Mellinger GT,Gleason DF. Survival rates of patients with prostatic cancer  tumor stage, and,differentiation--preliminary report. Cancer Chemother Rep 1966 Mar;50(3):129-36

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    72. Bailar JC 3d,Thomas LB,Thomson AD,Eisenberg H,Vick RM. Morphology and survival rates of cervical cancer in Connecticut and southwest England. Natl Cancer Inst Monogr 1966 Jan;19:385-403

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    73. Bailar JC 3d. Congenital malformations and season of birth: a brief review. Eugen Q 1965 Sep;12(3):146-53

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    74. Mason MJ,Bailar JC 3d,Eisenberg H. Geographic variation in the incidence of esophageal cancer. J Chronic Dis 1964 Aug;17(8):667-76

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    75. Bailar JC 3d. Radiation hazards of X-ray mammography.In: Late biological effects of ionizing radiation. Vol. I. Vienna, International Atomic Energy Agency, 1978. WN 620 S993L 1978 v.1:251-61