A Time Series Analysis For The Live Births in the United States, 1937-1998

Pen-Che Ho


In this presentation the pattern of live births over time is examined, and the long-term trend and seasonality for the live births are extracted. Then a time series model is tentatively fitted to the detrended and deseasonalized series. The changes for the age distribution and survivorship function over the time will also be examined. Here the life tables are utilized to construct the age distribution and evaluate the survivorship function.