Some Statistical Fallacies Encountered in Pharmaceutical Research

Jonathan Skinner, Stiefel Research Institute


This presentation will discuss fallacies related to multiplicity, precisionism, and the regression effect, that are encountered in pharmaceutical research. The multiplicity fallacy is found in protocols with objectives stated too vaguely, multiple methods for analysis of the same data, and the always popular time-by-time analysis of repeated measures ignoring subject effects. Precisionism manifests itself in rigid rules for analysis and disregard for multiple meanings of words, the regression effect may be found in analysis of pre-post data with restricted baselines. A survey about the clinical test problem (Casscells etal. 1978), New England Journal of Medicine, 299:999-1001) will be critiqued. Praiseworthy reasons for the persistence of these fallacies and intuitive strategies for dealing with them will be suggested. Old questions will thereby be shown to be also ‘Hot’.