PAD 724 - Syllabus, Lecture Notes, and Assignments

Lecture notes are available under "Descriptions" of each week. They are in PDF format, which requires the Adobe Reader to view and print them. You'll also have to set your web browser preferences to use the Acrobat Reader to access PDF files.

Week
Date
Topic
Description
Readings due
Exercises due
Project parts due
1

Aug 29

Intro Introduction, overview & review              
2
Sept 5
Formulation

Concept models

Concept models ppt

Welfare1, Welfare2, Welfare3
Reval1, Reval2, Basell
Norway1, Norway2, Norway3, Norway4

Concept model paper

Sterman §11, 12, 13.1-13.2.7

 

Project proposals

4
Sept 12
Formulation

Generic structures, System archetypes

Archetypes PPT

Sliding goals in student achievement?

Meadows, Whole Earth Models and Systems

Braun, The System Archetypes

Positive Systems Archetypes

Wolstenhome, Core Set of Archetypes

Co-flow exercise

Download Naill's Natural Gas model

Continue project conceptualization
5
Sept 19
Formulation Classical control theory

Feedback Thought §2 &3

Archetypes related to the project Continue project conceptualization
6
Sept 26
*** No class ***     Continue project
7
Oct 3
Conceptualization

Communicating structure

Diagrams PowerPoint

Morecroft, Strategy Support Models

Morecroft, Microworlds

Sterman §15

PID controllers Continue project formulation
8
Oct 10
Conceptualization Project
presentations
Randers, Guidelines for Conceptualization     Project diagrams
9
Oct 17
Conceptualization Group Model Building
Norway Sept 2005,
Recent Advances in GMB
Models: See Week 2 for Noway concept models,
HYDRO1

Teamwork in Group Model Building

System dynamics in Group Decision and Negotiation

    Continue project modeling & simulation
10
Oct 24
Conceptualization & Formulation

Parameters & initial values

Continuous logic & other difficult formulations

Graham, Parameter Estimation

Sterman §14, 16

    Continue project modeling & simulation
11
Oct 31
Validation

Understanding model behavior/sensitivity

Kaibab implementation.mdl
Lorenz chaos.mdl

Sterman §21     Progress reports
12
Nov 7
Validation

Fitting to data; Optimization; Thiel statistics
Petroleum fit description
Petroleum fit optimization

Population fit optimization
Slidng goals optimization
Theil stats in Vensim

Sterman §21.4.7 Analytic initialization Continue project
13
Nov 14
Projects Model evaluation: What is good (or bad) work? Article to review for class     Model analysis report and model
14
Nov 21
*** No class ***       Continue project
Begin wrap up
15
Nov 28
Validation

Tests for building confidence

Validation - Forrester & Senge

Forrester & Senge

(Sterman §21)

    Continue project
wrap up
16
Dec 5
Validation Final presentations        PowerPoint presentation and model
 
Dec 7
Projects Written project due       Project report
17
Dec 11
Dinner at the Richardson's Celebrating our successes w 624 and others      
             

Readings: On Reserve Readings: Soon to be linked to this syllabus
Forrester, Industrial Dynamics [Reserve] Morecroft, J. D. W. 1988. System Dynamics and Microworlds for Policymakers.
ISDM: Intro to System Dynamics Modeling with DYNAMO [Reserve]  
Richardson, Feedback Thought in Social Science and Systems Theory [Reserve]