PAD 724 - Syllabus, Lecture Notes, and Assignments

Lecture notes are available under "Descriptions" of each week. They are in PDF format, which requires the Adobe Reader to view and print them. You'll also have to set your web browser preferences to use the Acrobat Reader to access PDF files.

Week
Date
Topic
Description
Readings due
Exercises due
Project parts due
1

Aug 31

Intro Introduction, overview & review              
2
Sept 7
Formulation Concept models
Concept model paper

Welfare1, Welfare2, Welfare3
Reval1, Reval2
Basell
Norway1, Norway2, Norway3, Norway4

Sterman §11, 12, 13.1-13.2.7

 

Project proposals

4
Sept 14
Formulation

Generic structures, System archetypes

Archetypes PPT

Kim, Meadows, Braun, "The System Archetypes"

Co-flow exercise

Download Naill's Natural Gas model

   
5
Sept 21
Formulation Classical control theory Feedback Thought §2 &3 A system archtype Archetypes related to the project
6
Sept 28
Conceptualization Communicating structure: cognitive maps, policy structures Morecroft (both), Sterman §15 PID controllers    
7
Oct 5
Conceptualization Project
presentations
        Project diagrams
8
Oct 12
Conceptualization Group Model Building
Norway Sept 2005,
Recent Advances in GMB
Models: See Week 2 for Noway concept models,
HYDRO1

Teamwork in Group Model Building

System dynamics in Group Decision and Negotiation

       
9
Oct 19
Conceptualization & Formulation

Parameters & initial values

Continuous logic & other difficult formulations

Sterman §14, 16        
10
Oct 26
Validation Understanding model behavior/sensitivity Sterman §21     Progress reports
11
Nov 2
Validation

Fitting to data; Optimization; Thiel statistics

Petroleum fit description
Petroleum fit optimization

Population fit optimization

Theil stats in Vensim

Sterman §21.4.7 Analytic initialization    
12
Nov 9
Projects Model evaluation: What is good (or bad) work? Article to review for class     Model analysis report and model
13
Nov 16
Validation

Tests for building confidence

Validation - Forrester & Senge

Forrester & Senge, (Sterman §21)      
14
Nov 23
***No Class*** Thanksgiving      
15
Dec 7
Validation Final presentations        PowerPoint presentation and model
16
Dec 10
Projects Written project due       Project report

Readings: On Reserve Readings: On Blackboard (Eventually, I hope)
Forrester, Industrial Dynamics [Reserve] Kim, D.H. (1992). Systems Archetypes.
ISDM: Intro to System Dynamics Modeling with DYNAMO [Reserve] Meadows, Whole earth models and systems
Richardson, Feedback Thought in Social Science and Systems Theory [Reserve] Morecroft, J. D. W. (1984). Strategy Support Models.
  Morecroft, J. D. W. 1988. System Dynamics and Microworlds for Policymakers.
  Richardson, G.P, and D.F. Andersen (1995). Teamwork in Group Model Building.
  Graham, Parameterization, in Randers, Elements of the System Dynamics Method
  Forrester, J. W., & Senge, P. M. (1980). Tests for Building Confidence in System Dynamics Models.