{UTF-8}
********************************************************
	.easyjet
********************************************************~
		Simulation of effects of market growth and rivalry of easyJet Airlines.
	|

easyJet Customer Growth and Rivalry Simulation  = A FUNCTION OF( )
	~	
	~		|

Breakeven Load=
	0.85
	~	dmnl
	~	The fraction of total possible passengers needed for economic break-even
	|

Increasing easyJet Potential Passengers=
	New easyJet passengers from conversion and marketing * Effect of Load on Increase of New Passengers
	~	Passengers/Year
	~	easyJet's potential passengers are drawn from the incumbent's pool as well \
		as ongoing marketing efforts. This increase is moderated by the effects of \
		load
	|

New easyJet passengers from conversion and marketing=
	New easyJet passengers from conversion+New easyJet passengers from Marketing
	~	Passengers/Year
	~	Two sources for possible passengers:  Those generated by marketing and \
		those taken from the potential pool of the flag carriers.
	|

Required Passengers=
	easyJet Available Passenger Miles * Breakeven Load
	             / ( Flights per Passenger 
	                  * Miles per Passenger Flight )
	~	Passengers
	~	Number of passengers anticipated to meet the economic goals of easyJet
	~	:SUPPLEMENTARY 
	|

normal Load=
	0.68
	~	dmnl
	~	Average fraction of passengers on planes.  Source: Sull
	|

Changing Flag Carrier Fare=
	( easyJet Fare 
	             - Flag Carrier Fare ) 
	             / Time for Flag Carrier to Change Costs
	~	Pounds/(Passengers*Miles)/Year
	~	Change in Flag Carrier Fare is the adaptation of existing carriers to the \
		competitive price factor. There may be resistance to changing prices, as \
		many costs are negotiated and contracted for long periods to provide \
		stability. In a price war, however, losing money in the short term to \
		stabilize market share may be an important strategic option.
	|

Conversion Fraction per yr= WITH LOOKUP (
	 Relative Fare,
		([(0,0)-(1.2,4)],(0,3),(0.1,2.92),(0.2,2.77),(0.3,2.5),(0.4,2.02),(0.5,1.52),(0.6,0.875\
		),(0.7,0.325),(0.8,0.125),(0.9,0.05),(1,0),(1.1,0),(1.2,0) ))
	~	1/Year
	~	As the relative fare difference increases, more passengers move from the \
		market of the full-fare airlne to easyJet
	|

easyJet Available Daily Passenger Miles Per Plane=
	450000
	~	Miles/Day/Planes
	~	Number of passenger miles provided by a typical Boeing 737 each day flying \
		to and from European destinations. For example, a typical aircraft has a \
		capacity for 150 passengers and makes 3 flights of 1000 miles per day.
	|

easyJet Available Passenger Miles=
	easyJet Planes 
	             * easyJet Available Daily Passenger Miles Per Plane 
	             * easyJet Service Days Per Year
	~	Miles/Year
	~	Passenger miles available per year if the planes are fully loaded
	|

easyJet Fare=
	0.09
	~	Pounds/Passengers/Miles [0,0.5,0.01]
	~	Fare set by the start-up airline.  Fare is per passenger per mile.
	|

easyJet Marketing Effectiveness=
	0.05
	~	Passengers / Pounds
	~	Passengers wooed per pound spent.
	|

easyJet Marketing Spending=
	2.5e+006
	~	Pounds / Year
	~	Amount spent on marketing per year
	|

easyJet Planes=
	12
	~	Planes [0,50,1]
	~	Number of planes in the easyJet fleet.
	|

easyJet Service Days Per Year=
	360
	~	days/Year
	~	Service days per year
	|

easyJet's Avg Service Quality=
	1
	~	Quality
	~	Quality of service in the mind of the customer. A value of 1 is considered \
		to be the quality level of a full-service airline.
	|

easyJet's Passenger Load=
	Potential easyJet Passenger Miles 
	             / easyJet Available Passenger Miles
	~	dmnl
	~	The fraction of potential passengers that could be accomodated by easyJet.  \
		It can exceed the actual capacity.
	|

easyJet's relative quality=
	easyJet's Avg Service Quality/Incumbent Avg Service Quality
	~	dmnl
	~	Quality of easyJet relative to the flag carrier competitors
	|

effect of easyJet's relative quality on Passenger Loss Rate= WITH LOOKUP (
	easyJet's relative quality,
		([(0,0)-(1.5,20)],(0.2,20),(0.35,10),(0.4,8),(0.5,5),(0.6,3.5),(0.7,2.5),(0.8,1.8),\
		(0.9,1.3),(1,1),(1.1,0.7),(1.2,0.55),(1.3,0.4),(1.4,0.3),(1.5,0.25) ))
	~	dmnl
	~	As easyJet's service reputation rises relative to its competitors, its \
		passenger loss rate falls.
	|

Effect of Load on Increase of New Passengers= WITH LOOKUP (
	 easyJet's Passenger Load/normal Load,
		([(0,0)-(2,1)],(0,1),(1,1),(1.25,0.5),(1.5,0.25),(2,0.01) ))
	~	dmnl
	~	The Effect of load describes the effect of easyJet's plane capacity on its \
		market growth.
	|

FINAL TIME  = 2000
	~	Year
	~	The final time for the simulation.
	|

Flag Carrier Fare= INTEG (
	 Changing Flag Carrier Fare,
		0.25)
	~	Pounds/ Passengers/Miles
	~	Average fare charged by an established industry rival.
	|

Flights per Passenger=
	2
	~	Flights/Passengers/Years
	~	Number of round-trip flights per year per passenger.
	|

Incumbent Avg Service Quality=
	1
	~	Quality
	~	At full fare the incumbent airlines (flag carriers) set the quality \
		standard.
	|

INITIAL TIME  = 1996
	~	Year
	~	The initial time for the simulation.
	|

Losing easyJet Potential Passengers=
	Potential easyJet Passengers 
	             * effect of easyJet's relative quality on Passenger Loss Rate*normal Passenger Loss Rate
	~	Passengers/Year
	~	Fliers losing interest in easyJet
	|

Miles per Passenger Flight=
	1000
	~	Miles/Flights
	~	Average length of round-trip flights in Europe
	|

New easyJet passengers from Marketing=
	easyJet Marketing Spending * easyJet Marketing Effectiveness
	~	Passengers/Year
	~	Passengers anticipated from marketing efforts
	|

New easyJet passengers from conversion=
	Potential easyJet Passengers * Conversion Fraction per yr
	~	Passengers/Year
	~	The number of passengers gained from conversion from the incumbent \
		carriers potential market.
	|

normal Passenger Loss Rate=
	0.1
	~	1/Year
	~	The rate of passenger loss if service reputation is equivalent across all \
		airlines
	|

Potential easyJet Passenger Miles=
	Potential easyJet Passengers 
	             * Flights per Passenger 
	             * Miles per Passenger Flight
	~	Miles/Year
	~	The number of passenger miles per year generated if all potential \
		passengers exercise the option to fly.
	|

Potential easyJet Passengers= INTEG (
	 Increasing easyJet Potential Passengers 
	                  - Losing easyJet Potential Passengers,
		5000)
	~	Passengers
	~	Fliers willing to fly easyJet.
	|

Relative Fare  = 
        easyJet Fare 
             / Flag Carrier Fare
	~	dmnl
	~	Fare set by easyJet relative to the average fare of industry rivals
	|

SAVEPER  = 
        TIME STEP
	~	Year [0,?]
	~	The frequency with which output is stored.
	|

Time for Flag Carrier to Change Costs=
	4
	~	Year [0.5,6,0.5]
	~	Time for Flag Carrier to Change Costs  High-cost rivals could take 4-6 \
		years to restructure their costs, but may be willing to adjust faster to \
		prevent a new carrier from gaining a foothold.
	|

TIME STEP  = 0.0625
	~	Year [0,?]
	~	The time step for the simulation.
	|

\\\---/// Sketch information - do not modify anything except names
V300  Do not put anything below this section - it will be ignored
*Control Panel
$192-192-192,0,Comic Sans MS|18||0-0-0|0-0-0|0-0-255|-1--1--1|-1--1--1|96,96,5,0
10,1,easyJet Available Daily Passenger Miles Per Plane,314,233,130,29,8,3,0,8,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|16||0-0-0
10,2,Flights per Passenger,886,311,56,29,8,3,0,8,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|16||0-0-0
10,3,Miles per Passenger Flight,893,236,84,29,8,3,0,8,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|16||0-0-0
10,4,easyJet Service Days Per Year,630,235,83,29,8,3,0,8,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|16||0-0-0
12,5,0,625,154,407,36,8,135,0,2,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|18||0-128-0
Scenario Parameters (The context.  Don't change these, unless you want to live dangerously)
12,6,0,383,467,90,33,8,7,0,2,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|18||0-128-0
Easy Jet Policy Parameters
10,7,easyJet Fare,260,539,78,16,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
10,8,easyJet Marketing Spending,520,556,110,33,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
12,9,0,897,467,118,33,8,7,0,2,-1,0,0,0,-1--1--1,0-0-0,|18||0-128-0
Competitor Response Parameter
10,10,Time for Flag Carrier to Change Costs,900,559,124,33,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
10,11,easyJet Marketing Effectiveness,631,317,97,29,8,3,0,8,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|16||0-0-0
10,12,easyJet Customer Growth and Rivalry Simulation,667,79,319,54,8,131,0,16,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|0|B|0-0-0
\\\---/// Sketch information - do not modify anything except names
V300  Do not put anything below this section - it will be ignored
*Indicators
$192-192-192,0,Comic Sans MS|18||0-0-0|0-0-0|0-0-255|-1--1--1|-1--1--1|96,96,100,0
12,1,919654,307,469,150,150,3,44,0,0,1,0,0,0
Conversion
12,2,1769938,615,157,150,150,3,44,0,0,1,0,0,0
Fares
12,3,854484,305,159,150,150,3,44,0,0,1,0,0,0
PvR_Passengers
12,4,723390,612,467,150,150,3,44,0,0,1,0,0,0
easy_Jet_Passenger_Load
\\\---/// Sketch information - do not modify anything except names
V300  Do not put anything below this section - it will be ignored
*Model
$192-192-192,0,Comic Sans MS|14||0-0-0|0-0-0|0-0-255|-1--1--1|-1--1--1|96,96,5,0
10,1,Potential easyJet Passengers,949,358,60,32,3,131,0,0,0,0,0,0
12,2,48,754,366,10,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,3,5,1,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(846,360)|
1,4,5,2,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(778,360)|
11,5,48,798,360,6,8,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0
10,6,Increasing easyJet Potential Passengers,798,406,62,38,40,131,0,0,-1,0,0,0
12,7,48,1206,356,10,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,8,10,7,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1153,356)|
1,9,10,1,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1054,356)|
11,10,48,1105,356,6,8,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0
10,11,Losing easyJet Potential Passengers,1105,394,71,30,40,131,0,0,-1,0,0,0
10,12,Effect of Load on Increase of New Passengers,530,377,65,40,8,131,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,13,1,10,1,0,45,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(1055,303)|
1,14,1,62,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(639,389)|
10,15,easyJet Marketing Effectiveness,1170,576,69,30,8,131,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,16,Conversion Fraction per yr,588,617,66,24,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,17,16,62,1,0,0,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(576,579)|
10,18,effect of easyJet's relative quality on Passenger Loss Rate,1156,254,89,36,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,19,18,10,1,0,0,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(1129,324)|
10,20,easyJet's Avg Service Quality,1061,48,60,32,3,131,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,21,20,75,1,0,0,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(1123,90)|
10,22,easyJet Marketing Spending,959,623,82,25,8,131,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,23,Relative Fare,430,616,50,21,8,131,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,24,23,16,1,0,45,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(523,619)|
10,25,Potential easyJet Passenger Miles,733,229,80,24,8,131,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,26,1,25,1,0,0,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(848,237)|
10,27,Miles per Passenger Flight,739,153,72,24,8,131,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,28,Flights per Passenger,927,185,48,24,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,29,27,25,1,0,0,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(731,193)|
1,30,28,25,1,0,0,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(840,202)|
10,31,easyJet's Passenger Load,542,275,68,24,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,32,25,31,1,0,0,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(611,243)|
1,33,38,23,1,0,45,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|14||0-0-0,1|(407,536)|
1,34,47,23,1,0,0,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|14||0-0-0,1|(355,598)|
12,35,0,688,500,19,13,0,7,0,0,-1,0,0,0
(R1)
12,36,0,645,286,20,13,0,7,0,0,-1,0,0,0
(B2)
12,37,0,1044,323,19,13,0,7,0,0,-1,0,0,0
(B1)
10,38,Flag Carrier Fare,368,488,60,32,3,131,0,0,0,0,0,0
12,39,48,164,475,10,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,40,42,39,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(207,472)|
1,41,42,38,68,0,0,22,2,0,0,-1--1--1,|14||0-0-0,1|(280,472)|
11,42,48,247,472,6,8,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0
10,43,Changing Flag Carrier Fare,247,513,64,33,40,131,0,0,-1,0,0,0
10,44,Time for Flag Carrier to Change Costs,143,595,89,32,8,131,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,45,44,43,1,0,45,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|14||0-0-0,1|(229,575)|
1,46,38,42,1,0,45,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|14||0-0-0,1|(326,408)|
10,47,easyJet Fare,288,606,53,24,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,48,47,43,1,0,0,0,2,0,0,-1--1--1,|14||0-0-0,1|(284,576)|
12,49,0,311,434,20,13,0,7,0,0,-1,0,0,0
(B3)
10,50,easyJet Available Passenger Miles,394,159,80,24,8,131,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,51,Required Passengers,312,363,49,24,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,52,easyJet Planes,378,51,60,32,3,131,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,53,easyJet Service Days Per Year,156,215,74,24,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,54,easyJet Available Daily Passenger Miles Per Plane,177,154,112,24,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,55,52,50,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(379,106)|
1,56,53,50,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(277,200)|
1,57,54,50,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(331,126)|
10,58,New easyJet passengers from Marketing,974,542,82,29,8,131,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,59,58,82,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(871,545)|
1,60,15,58,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1085,561)|
1,61,22,58,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(964,591)|
10,62,New easyJet passengers from conversion,575,539,71,30,8,131,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,63,62,82,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(726,573)|
1,64,12,6,1,0,45,0,2,0,0,-1--1--1,|14||0-0-0,1|(695,423)|
1,65,50,31,1,0,45,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|14||0-0-0,1|(497,207)|
1,66,50,51,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(305,244)|
10,67,Miles per Passenger Flight,133,378,75,24,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|14||128-128-128
10,68,Flights per Passenger,138,289,52,24,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|14||128-128-128
1,69,67,51,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(253,400)|
1,70,68,51,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(237,304)|
10,71,normal Passenger Loss Rate,1190,492,89,24,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,72,71,11,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1106,437)|
10,73,Incumbent Avg Service Quality,1216,47,60,32,3,131,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,74,73,75,1,0,45,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|14||0-0-0,1|(1192,95)|
10,75,easyJet's relative quality,1175,146,71,29,8,131,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,76,75,18,1,0,45,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|14||0-0-0,1|(1185,169)|
10,77,normal Load,405,307,37,27,8,131,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,78,77,12,1,0,45,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|14||0-0-0,1|(474,364)|
1,79,31,12,1,0,0,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|14||0-0-0,1|(533,327)|
10,80,Breakeven Load,139,430,64,26,8,131,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,81,80,51,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(209,434)|
10,82,New easyJet passengers from conversion and marketing,783,540,77,42,8,131,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,83,82,6,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(818,476)|
///---\\\
:GRAPH PvR_Passengers
:TITLE Potential v. Required Pax
:X-DIV 4
:SCALE
:VAR Potential easyJet Passengers
:VAR Required Passengers

:GRAPH Fares
:TITLE Fare Comparison
:X-DIV 4
:SCALE
:VAR easyJet Fare
:VAR Flag Carrier Fare

:GRAPH Conversion
:TITLE Conversion Ratio
:STAMP |Word of Mouth based on fare
:X-DIV 4
:SCALE
:VAR Conversion Fraction per yr

:GRAPH Route_Saturati
:TITLE Route Saturation
:X-DIV 4
:SCALE
:VAR Route Saturation

:GRAPH easy_Jet_Passenger_Load
:TITLE easy Jet Passenger Load
:X-DIV 4
:SCALE
:VAR easyJet's Passenger Load
:L<%^E!@
1:Base.vdf
9:Base
22:$,Dollar,Dollars,$s
22:Day,Days,Dia,Dias
22:Euro,Euros
22:Ghectare,Ghectares,GHA
22:Hectare,Hectares,HA
22:Hour,Hours
22:Month,Months
22:Person,People,Persons
22:Resource Unit,Resource Units
22:Unit,Units
22:Week,Weeks
22:Widget,Widgets
22:Year,Years
23:0
15:0,0,0,0,0,0
19:5,2
27:2,
34:0,
4:Time
5:easyJet Customer Growth and Rivalry Simulation
35:Date
36:YYYY-MM-DD
37:1996
38:1
39:1
40:0
41:0
24:1996
25:2000
26:2000