{UTF-8}
Fraction of new poor that are slow movers=
	0.3
	~	dmnl
	~		|

Fast movers in poverty= INTEG (
	+New FMs slipping into poverty-FMs moving out of poverty,
		7000)
	~	people
	~		|

Fast movers tracked post poverty= INTEG (
	+FMs moving out of poverty-FMs exiting,
		8400)
	~	people
	~		|

FM time in poverty=
	10
	~	months
	~		|

FMs exiting=
	Fast movers tracked post poverty/Tracking period
	~	people/Month
	~		|

FMs moving out of poverty=
	Fast movers in poverty/FM time in poverty
	~	people/Month
	~		|

New FMs slipping into poverty=
	(1-Fraction of new poor that are slow movers)*Total inflow to poverty
	~	people/Month
	~		|

New SMs slipping into poverty=
	Fraction of new poor that are slow movers*Total inflow to poverty
	~	people/Month
	~		|

Tracking period=
	12
	~	months
	~		|

Post poverty estimate of spell=
	Probability of polling a slow mover after poverty*SM time in poverty + (1-Probability of polling a slow mover after poverty\
		)*FM time in poverty
	~	months
	~		|

Probability of polling a slow mover after poverty=
	Slow movers tracked post poverty/(Slow movers tracked post poverty+Fast movers tracked post poverty\
		)
	~	dmnl
	~		|

Probability of polling a slow mover in poverty=
	Slow movers in poverty/(Slow movers in poverty+Fast movers in poverty)
	~	dmnl
	~		|

Slow movers in poverty= INTEG (
	New SMs slipping into poverty-SMs moving out of poverty,
		12000)
	~	people
	~		|

Slow movers tracked post poverty= INTEG (
	+SMs moving out of poverty-SMs exiting,
		3600)
	~	people
	~		|

SM time in poverty=
	40
	~	months
	~		|

SMs exiting=
	Slow movers tracked post poverty/Tracking period
	~	people/Month
	~		|

SMs moving out of poverty=
	Slow movers in poverty/SM time in poverty
	~	people/Month
	~		|

Poverty estimate of spell=
	Probability of polling a slow mover in poverty*SM time in poverty + (1-Probability of polling a slow mover in poverty\
		)*FM time in poverty
	~	months
	~		|

Total inflow to poverty=
	1000
	~	people/Month
	~		|

********************************************************
	.Control
********************************************************~
		Simulation Control Paramaters
	|

FINAL TIME  = 96
	~	Month
	~	The final time for the simulation.
	|

INITIAL TIME  = 0
	~	Month
	~	The initial time for the simulation.
	|

SAVEPER  = 
        TIME STEP
	~	Month
	~	The frequency with which output is stored.
	|

TIME STEP  = 0.0625
	~	Month
	~	The time step for the simulation.
	|

\\\---/// Sketch information - do not modify anything except names
V300  Do not put anything below this section - it will be ignored
*Spells2 view
$192-192-192,0,Times New Roman|12||0-0-0|0-0-0|0-0-255|-1--1--1|-1--1--1|72,72,100,0
10,1,Slow movers in poverty,337,108,53,27,3,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,2,Fast movers in poverty,339,413,53,27,3,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
12,3,48,116,108,10,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,4,6,1,4,0,0,22,1,0,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(246,107)|
1,5,6,3,100,0,0,22,1,0,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(159,107)|
11,6,48,201,107,8,11,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0
10,7,New SMs slipping into poverty,201,137,59,19,40,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
12,8,48,123,410,10,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,9,11,2,4,0,0,22,1,0,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(250,411)|
1,10,11,8,100,0,0,22,1,0,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(165,411)|
11,11,48,206,411,8,11,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0
10,12,New FMs slipping into poverty,206,441,59,19,40,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
10,13,Slow movers tracked post poverty,591,108,53,27,3,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,14,Fast movers tracked post poverty,595,418,53,27,3,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,15,17,13,4,0,0,22,1,0,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(505,107)|
1,16,17,1,100,0,0,22,1,0,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(423,107)|
11,17,236,464,107,8,11,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0
10,18,SMs moving out of poverty,464,138,51,20,40,131,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,19,21,14,4,0,0,22,1,0,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(508,411)|
1,20,21,2,100,0,0,22,1,0,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(425,411)|
11,21,460,467,411,8,11,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0
10,22,FMs moving out of poverty,467,443,50,21,40,131,0,0,-1,0,0,0
10,23,SM time in poverty,465,191,49,8,0,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,24,FM time in poverty,475,339,49,8,0,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,25,1,17,1,0,0,0,1,64,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(420,63)|
1,26,23,18,1,0,0,0,1,64,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(465,169)|
1,27,24,21,1,0,0,0,1,64,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(472,370)|
1,28,2,22,1,0,0,0,1,64,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(390,480)|
12,29,48,801,108,10,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,30,32,29,4,0,0,22,1,0,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(758,107)|
1,31,32,13,100,0,0,22,1,0,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(676,107)|
11,32,48,717,107,8,11,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0
10,33,SMs exiting,717,129,31,8,32,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
12,34,48,796,412,10,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,35,37,34,4,0,0,22,1,0,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(756,411)|
1,36,37,14,100,0,0,22,1,0,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(679,411)|
11,37,48,718,411,8,11,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0
10,38,FMs exiting,718,433,31,8,32,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,39,13,32,1,0,0,0,1,64,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(672,57)|
1,40,14,38,1,0,0,0,1,64,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(665,480)|
10,41,Tracking period,839,254,41,8,0,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,42,41,33,0,0,0,0,1,64,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(782,196)|
1,43,41,37,0,0,0,0,1,64,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(781,327)|
10,44,Fraction of new poor that are slow movers,75,326,68,19,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,45,Total inflow to poverty,83,182,58,8,0,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,46,44,7,0,0,0,0,1,64,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(133,237)|
1,47,44,11,0,0,0,0,1,64,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(145,371)|
1,48,45,11,0,0,0,0,1,64,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(141,290)|
1,49,45,7,0,0,0,0,1,64,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(120,167)|
10,50,Probability of polling a slow mover in poverty,224,265,71,19,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,51,Probability of polling a slow mover after poverty,715,265,80,19,8,131,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,52,1,50,0,0,0,0,1,64,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(281,184)|
1,53,2,50,0,0,0,0,1,64,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(282,340)|
1,54,13,51,0,0,0,0,1,64,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(651,184)|
1,55,14,51,0,0,0,0,1,64,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(653,343)|
10,56,Poverty estimate of spell,379,265,39,39,2,131,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,57,Post poverty estimate of spell,555,265,41,41,2,131,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,58,23,56,0,0,0,0,1,64,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(437,214)|
1,59,24,56,0,0,0,0,1,64,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(442,313)|
1,60,50,56,0,0,0,0,1,64,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(310,265)|
1,61,51,57,0,0,0,0,1,64,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(622,265)|
1,62,24,57,0,0,0,0,1,64,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(498,316)|
1,63,23,57,0,0,0,0,1,64,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(493,214)|
\\\---/// Sketch information - do not modify anything except names
V300  Do not put anything below this section - it will be ignored
*Spells1 view
$192-192-192,0,Times New Roman|12||0-0-0|0-0-0|0-0-255|-1--1--1|-1--1--1|72,72,100,0
10,1,Slow movers in poverty,337,108,53,27,3,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,2,Fast movers in poverty,339,413,53,27,3,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
12,3,48,116,108,10,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,4,6,1,4,0,0,22,1,0,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(246,107)|
1,5,6,3,100,0,0,22,1,0,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(159,107)|
11,6,48,201,107,8,11,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0
10,7,New SMs slipping into poverty,201,137,59,19,40,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
12,8,48,123,410,10,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,9,11,2,4,0,0,22,1,0,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(250,411)|
1,10,11,8,100,0,0,22,1,0,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(165,411)|
11,11,48,206,411,8,11,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0
10,12,New FMs slipping into poverty,206,441,59,19,40,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
10,13,Slow movers tracked post poverty,591,108,53,27,3,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,14,Fast movers tracked post poverty,595,418,53,27,3,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,15,17,13,4,0,0,22,1,0,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(505,107)|
1,16,17,1,100,0,0,22,1,0,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(423,107)|
11,17,236,464,107,8,11,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0
10,18,SMs moving out of poverty,464,138,51,20,40,131,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,19,21,14,4,0,0,22,1,0,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(508,411)|
1,20,21,2,100,0,0,22,1,0,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(425,411)|
11,21,460,467,411,8,11,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0
10,22,FMs moving out of poverty,467,443,50,21,40,131,0,0,-1,0,0,0
10,23,SM time in poverty,465,191,49,8,0,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,24,FM time in poverty,475,339,49,8,0,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,25,1,17,1,0,0,0,1,64,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(420,63)|
1,26,23,18,1,0,0,0,1,64,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(465,169)|
1,27,24,21,1,0,0,0,1,64,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(472,370)|
1,28,2,22,1,0,0,0,1,64,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(390,480)|
12,29,48,801,108,10,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,30,32,29,4,0,0,22,1,0,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(758,107)|
1,31,32,13,100,0,0,22,1,0,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(676,107)|
11,32,48,717,107,8,11,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0
10,33,SMs exiting,717,129,31,8,32,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
12,34,48,796,412,10,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,35,37,34,4,0,0,22,1,0,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(756,411)|
1,36,37,14,100,0,0,22,1,0,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(679,411)|
11,37,48,718,411,8,11,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0
10,38,FMs exiting,718,433,31,8,32,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,39,13,32,1,0,0,0,1,64,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(672,57)|
1,40,14,38,1,0,0,0,1,64,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(665,480)|
10,41,Tracking period,839,254,41,8,0,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,42,41,33,0,0,0,0,1,64,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(782,196)|
1,43,41,37,0,0,0,0,1,64,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(781,327)|
10,44,Fraction of new poor that are slow movers,75,326,68,19,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,45,Total inflow to poverty,83,182,58,8,0,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,46,44,7,0,0,0,0,1,64,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(133,237)|
1,47,44,11,0,0,0,0,1,64,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(145,371)|
1,48,45,11,0,0,0,0,1,64,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(141,290)|
1,49,45,7,0,0,0,0,1,64,0,0-0-255,|12||0-0-0,1|(120,167)|
///---\\\
:GRAPH Stocks_in_and_out_of_pov
:TITLE Stocks in and out of poverty
:SCALE
:VAR Slow movers in poverty
:LINE-WIDTH 2
:VAR Fast movers in poverty
:LINE-WIDTH 2
:VAR Slow movers within one yr of poverty
:LINE-WIDTH 2
:VAR Fast movers within one year of poverty
:LINE-WIDTH 2

:GRAPH Probabilities
:TITLE Probabilities
:SCALE
:VAR Probability of polling a slow mover in poverty
:VAR Probability of polling a slow mover after poverty

:GRAPH Estimates_of_spells
:TITLE Estimates of lengths of spells in poverty
:X-DIV 4
:SCALE
:VAR Poverty estimate of spell
:VAR Post poverty estimate of spell
:L<%^E!@
1:exit 18 mons.vdf
1:exit 6 mons.vdf
1:spells2 pt 1.vdf
1:spells2 pt 05.vdf
1:spells2 base.vdf
1:fraction SM pt1.vdf
1:fraction SM pt05.vdf
9:exit 18 mons
22:month,months
23:0
15:0,0,0,0,0,0
19:100,0
27:2,
34:0,
4:Time
5:Tracking period
24:0
25:96
26:96