Lectures, Readings and Assignments
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| Week | Date |
Topic
|
System Dynamics Skills | Readings Due | Assignments Due |
|
1 |
Aug 30 | Course overview and logistics. Introduction to System Dynamics Foundations of System Dynamics |
Dynamics, feedback loops, and stocks and flows. System dynamics approach to policy analysis. The endogenous point of view. | None | None |
|
2 |
Sep 6 | A case study in systems thinking: the Governor's Office of Regulatory Assistance |
Approaching a real-world case with and without systems thinking and simulation. Sources of policy resistance. Model: GORA | GORA case | Feedback and circular causality |
|
3 |
Sep 13 | A first experience with simulation for policy analysis: Dynamics of the Kaibab deer population. | Mental models and formal models. Models in the policy process. Editing and simulating in Vensim. Drawing conclusions from model-based analyses. | BD §1, §5.1-5.4. FT §2 | Read. Download Vensim PLE from www.vensim.com. Bring laptop to class if you have one, or share with a classmate. Download Kaibab model for class. |
|
4 |
Sep 20 | Introduction to simulation tools. Model formulation in Vensim Urban dynamics. |
Understanding simulation.Vensim mechanics. Diagrams and equations. Structure of exponential growth & decay. Nonlinear effects & S-shaped growth. Beginning a catalog of structures. | BD §2.5, 3, [2.2]; | Dynamics of spells of poverty Download Spells1 Download Spells2 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | Formulating simple urban models | Material and information delays. Smooths. Endogenous dynamics. Compensating feedback. Iterative model building. Models: BSN, POPBSN, URBAN1. | BD §4.1, 4.2 [4.3] | Urban model simulations & analysis |
|
6 |
Oct 4 | Project dynamics in ISDM | Model conceptualization. The concept of a dynamic hypothesis. Iterative model building. Models: Project1a, Project1b, Project1c, Project1d, Project1 |
BD (§5.1-5.4), §5.5-5.6, [ISDM, §2.4, 4.4] | Adding taxes to URBAN1 Download URBAN1 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | World Dynamics | A controversial, and consequently instructive, model-based study by the founder of the field. Building a world model together. | BD §6 [§7] | Improving the Project Model Download the Project model |
|
8 |
Oct 18 | Model evaluation / validation. |
Discussion of model evaluation / validation, building on World Dynamics. Is accuracy necessary before precision is useful? | World Dynamics Download WORLD2 |
|
|
9 |
Oct 25 | Technical tools | Rate vs level graphs. Analyzing loop dominance in first-order systems. | BD §8, 9.1, 9.2, [9.3], 9.4 | Epidemic modeling and policy simulation |
|
10 |
Nov 1 | Oscillations Backlog WF model Backlog WF model w overtime Market Growth model |
Oscillations arise in balancing loops with at least two dynamically significant stocks. Structure and dynamics of fixed and sliding goals. | BD §11.1-11.3 [11.4] | Technical and conceptual exercises |
|
11 |
Nov 8 | Nonlinear oscillations. Commodity concept model Meadows model Meadows model w corrections |
Limit cycles. State-space graphs. Analyzing oscillations. Application to commodity cycles. Improving model structure. | BD §11.1-11.3 [11.4] | Inventory/Workforce cycles first draft Download Widgets1 model |
|
12 |
Nov 15 | Serious games: Fish Banks Ltd. | Simulation games for learning about system dynamics and policy. The potential of the tragedy of the commons. | [BD §20] | Inventory/Workforce cycles |
|
13 |
Nov 22 | Approaches to conceptualization | Problem focus, Problem dynamics, Context, Audience, and Purpose. Model boundaries: Temporal, Conceptual and Causal. | BD §3; Randers | |
|
14 |
Nov 29 | Current issues in policy simulation. See Scripts in GMB, Advances in GMB, & Foundations again. | Group model building. Systems thinking and modeling for policy implementation. | [FT §6] | Fish Banks model(s) |
|
15 |
Dec 6 | Dinner at the Richardson's | Celebrating our successes. 6:00 p.m., 12 Pine Street, Delmar, NY 12054 |
Optional: Conceptualizing a model-based study |
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