Research
Activities: Steven F. Messner
Dr. Messner continues his longstanding involvement in international and comparative research on crime. With funding from NSF, Messner and his Co-PIs initiated a project to examine the consequences of economic reform and the associated population redistribution for criminal victimization in Tianjin, China. During the past three years, they worked with collaborators at the Tianjin Academy of Social Sciences to develop the study, which uses a stratified, multi-stage cluster design to allow for multi-level modeling of individual and neighborhood correlates of victimization risk. Thus far, one paper from this project, on the survey methodology, is forthcoming in the International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, and several papers have been presented at professional meetings on topics including: routine activities/life styles and risks of personal victimization; household and neighborhood level determinants of household burglary; correlates of fear of crime; and determinants of reporting crimes to the police. Three of these papers are presently under review. Other recent publications include editorship of a volume on Crime and Social Control in a Changing China, containing chapters on the effect of market reform and modernization on crime trends in China.
Messner has also conducted comparative research on crime outside China. In one binational study, Messner and his coauthor created a unique file merging detailed data on homicides in Finland with homicide data for the U. S. from the Supplementary Homicide Rates. Their findings (published in Criminology and the International Criminal Justice Review) reveal that the so-called gender gap in homicide varies for different types of homicide depending on the victim/offender relationship, and this underscores the utility of disaggregated analyses. In a comparative study of mortality due to intentional injury (forthcoming in Journal of Marriage and Family), Messner and colleagues examine the effects of divorce and non-marital fertility on sex-age-specific suicide rates for a sample of developed nations. They find an intriguing interaction effect for male adolescents. The effects of increasing divorce rates on suicide rates are particularly high for male youths who were born during periods when levels of non-marital fertility were high. A chapter on cross-national variation in criminal violence appeared in the International Handbook of Violence Research. Messner and colleagues have investigated the implications of variation in the quality of income distribution data for the estimated effects of income inequality on national homicide rates. These analyses show that the effects of income inequality are robust in cross-sectional designs but are dependent on data quality in longitudinal studies.
Messner’s active research agenda dovetails with CSDA’s signature theme of spatial inequalities, for his interests include the spatial patterning of homicide mortality. Publications on the spatial analysis of homicide have appeared in Best Practices in Spatially Integrated Social Science and Criminology. In a series of earlier projects, he and his collaborators examined the spatial patterning of homicide rates for US counties during the post-World War II era. Applying the techniques of Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) to county-level homicide for the decennial years 1960-90, the research team found distinct spatial regimes within the nation, such as a more pronounced clustering in the South. Formal econometric modeling of spatial dependence indicated that a “spatial lag model,” suggestive of diffusion, fits the Southern region well, whereas a “spatial error model” better describes spatial patterning in the non-Southern region. Other publications on spatial patterning include work on lynching and Southern homicide and social capital and homicide (both appearing in the American Sociological Review). Messner has published (with past CSDA Director Scott South) on the interconnections between crime and demography. This collaboration resulted in chapters in the Annual Review of Sociology and the Encyclopedia of Crime and Punishment. Messner also spearheaded the development of a “multilevel” working group (supported by the National Consortium on Violence Research) to conduct research on violence in its geographic context.
Messner has been PI on a National Science Foundation grant, “Criminal Victimization in Contemporary Urban China: A Multilevel Analysis of Survey Data for the City of Tianjin,” which currently has a no-cost extension to 2007.
Dr. Messner’s work in progress and planned projects pursue two general directions. With the completion of the data collection from the Tianjin survey, Messner and colleagues are conducting analyses and disseminating findings. They are also developing plans for a follow-up study that will focus on the victimization experiences and neighborhood conditions associated with rural migrants in Tianjin, the so-called “floating population,” whose experiences with crime and social disorder have been the subject of much speculation but little empirical documentation. Messner and his colleagues are uniquely positioned to embark upon an original data collection effort in China.
Messner brings special expertise in spatial and comparative analyses of homicide mortality. In his current project on criminal victimization in China and his developing research on rural migrants, Messner extends his research agenda to include population redistribution. He has collaborated effectively with several Center associates, including Richard Alba, Glenn Deane, Zai Liang, Christopher Smith, and Scott South.
Messner makes intensive use of the computing infrastructure, statistical consultation, and information resources provided by the Center. His research interest in spatial data analysis has been supported by the GIS staff of CSDA. In addition, as past leader and active participant in UCRN, Messner relied on varied forms of support from the Center.