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Scenario Planning

From the Electronic Discussion on Group Facilitation

www.albany.edu/cpr/gf/

 

Scenario Design

 

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I suggest "Scenarios and Corporate Strategy:  Planning in Uncertain Times,"

by Thomas Mandel.  It is a report from the Business Intelligence Program of

SRI International, Research Report 669, November 1982.  I found the

information to be clear, thorough and useful. Good luck.

                         --Rosemary Booth

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There's a book titled "The Long View" by Schwartz that deals with

scenarios.  Also, the AT&T Corporate Strategy office uses scenarios -- VP

is Robert Holder. Recommend you call Leonard Ingoglia first.  They're both

at the AT&T Corp. HQ.

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Yes, I'm aware of a number of resources on Scenario development and

scenarios as a form of planning.  I'd like more details about what

you're interested in.  This is an area that I have expertise in (I'm a

consultant--one of the areas I work in).  For starters however, try

looking at the Winter 1995 Sloan Management Review.  Paul Schoemaker's

article on Scenarios is quite readable and bridges the theory and

practice approaches very well.  Plus, Schoemaker is one of the better

practishioners in the field.

 

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Hello from the North Pole (or near it )

 

The book I have is in Finnish (by ms. Tarja Meristv), but here are some

books and papers quoted in it (related literature list):

 

Becker Harold S. Constructing and Using Scenarios: An aid to strategic

planning and decision-making. World Future Society Bulletin, Sept-Oct

1981 pp. 13-24

 

Linneman R & Klein H. The use of multiple Scenarios by U.S. Industrial

Companies. A Comparison Study 1977-81. Long Range Planning, vol. 16

(1983), No. 6., pp 94-101.

 

Malaska, P. Multiple Scenario Approach and strategic Behaviour in

European companies. Strategic management Journal, Vol. 6 (1985), pp.

339-355.

 

Millet S. and Randles F. Scenarios for strategic business planning: a

case history from Aerospace and Defense companies. Interfaces, vol. 16

(1986), no 6, pp 64-72.

 

Schnaars S.P. How to develop and use scenarios. Long Range planning,

vol. 20 (1987), no 1, pp105-114.

 

Wack, P. Scenarios: Uncharted Waters ahead. HBR no 5/1985, pp 128-140

 

Wack, P. Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids. HBR no 6/1985, pp 139-150

 

Intrestingly, no books in English. Maybe ms Meristv didn't have time to

read or the Europeans have been using scenarios more ?

 

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>What makes Paul Schoemaker one of the better practishioners?

 

He has done extensive academic research on decision-making and scenario

development, he worked with Royal-Dutch Shell--the organization that

brought Scenario Planning to the forefront as an analytical and planning

tool, and he has consulted extensively.  In otherwords, he has a very

strong academic research and practical applications background--very

rare to see both in any one person.

 

>What is his modality? Does he have email--or how can he be contacted

>(snail mail address)?  Are there brochures or other such literature

>by consultants doing this work, including yourself?

 

Sorry, I don't have his address.  I know he used to be at either U.Pitt

or U. Pa. (opposite ends of the State--but it was one of those two

schools).  I'm not sure what you are looking for when you ask about

brochures and other such literature.  Obviously I have a number of

brochures, vitas, and professional documents.  My experience however, is

that there is very little literature (I know this is also reflective of

mine) that is specific to scenario planning.  This is because the

audience for this work is small and specialized.  It would be kind of

like asking some of the chaos/complexity folks at Santa Fe if they have

a brochure--my experience is that s omso-spacerun: yes">  It would be kind of

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