Proposal by Professor Andrea Lang funded by NOAA MAPP Program

March 31, 2016 - A project titled, “A categorical assessment of forecast skill, uncertainty and biases in extended range ensemble forecasts of stratospheric regime changes” was awarded to Prof. Andrea Lang via the NOAA/Climate Program Office’s Modeling, Analysis, Prediction, and Projection (MAPP) Program competition in Research to Advance Prediction of Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Phenomena. This project focuses on wintertime stratospheric regime changes (e.g., a change in the polar vortex strength, location, shape) which are often followed by similar circulation changes at the surface. This project aims to quantify the forecast skill of such stratospheric regime changes and its precursors, specifically, blocking events. The underlying hypothesis is that forecast errors in physical processes (i.e., latent heating associated with blocking) lead to forecast errors in dynamical mechanisms (i.e., wave fluxes) leading to stratospheric regime changes. This three year award for $363,882 also supports Prof. Lang as a participant in NOAA’s newly formed S2S Prediction Task Force.