Econometric Research Institute (ERI)

RESEARCH PROGRAM on 'Transportation and Business Cycles'

This program has been sponsored by grants from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, U.S. Department of Transportation during 2001-2003. We have developed a monthly output index for U.S transportation sector covering airlines, rail, waterborne, trucking, transit and pipelines (NAICS codes 481-486) activities since 1979, namely, transportation sector index (TSI). Our ERI researchers also provided training and consulting services to TSI project team of U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics during the summer of 2003 for its eventual in-house production.

ERI News Release:

• Lahiri and Yao Experimental TSI historical data (January 1979 to March 2004, in Excel format), released on May 9, 2004.



• TSI Report, released on March 9, 2004.

 

ERI Papers and Reports:  reprints of published articles.

• Final Report on "The Theoretical Development, Selection, and Testing Of Economic Indicators for the Transportation Industry," U.S. Department of Transportation, November 2002.



• "Monthly Output Index for the U.S. Transportation Sector," Journal of Transportation & Statistics, Vol. 6 (2/3), 2003.



• “The Predictive Power of An Experimental Transportation Output Index,” Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 11 (3), 2004.



• “Transportation and the Economy: Their Linkages at Business Cycle Frequencies,” Transportation Research Record (Journal of Transportation Research Board), The National Academies, Washington D.C., 2004.



• “A Dynamic Factor Model of the Coincident Indicators for the U.S. Transportation Sector,” Applied Economics Letters, Forthcoming.

Interviews by Media:

• Business Review, Nov. 24, 2003.

• U.S. Secretary of Transportation Mineta visited NYSE to announce the TSI, Jan. 29, 2004.

• UAlbany Headlines, March 10, 2004.
  
  
• Times Union , Mar. 20, 2004.



• Invited Speech at New York State Department of Transportation, Mar. 22, 2004.

• Business Week, April 5, 2004.
  

ERI Discussion Papers: preliminary papers circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment.

• “Business Cycle Analysis for the U.S. Transportation Sector,” paper presented at the conference “Business Cycles – Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting” in Honor of Victor Zarnowitz, organized by CIRET and RWI, Essen, Germany, June 27-28, 2003; the World Bank, August 22nd, 2003.
• "Should Transportation Output be Part of Coincident Indicator System?" mimeo, 2003.

Maps for U.S. Transportation System:

• Roads Network of United States: Highway and Railroads.
• Major Pipe Lines of United States: Crude Oil; Refined Products.
• Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts: Movements of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products in United States.

Affiliations:

• U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), The U.S. Department of Transportation
• American Trucking Association (ATA)
• Air Transport Association of America (ATA)
• Association of American Railroads (AAR)
• Federal Railway Administration (FRA)
• Energy Information Administration (EIA), The U.S. Department of Energy
• Association of Oil Pipe Lines (AOPL)
• American Public Transportation Association (APTA)
• Travel Industry Association of America (TIA)
• Institute for Supply Management (ISM), formerly National Association of Purchasing Management (NAPM)

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This section is being maintained by Vincent Yao.

Last modified: December 3rd 2003!