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  Research Statement (pdf)    
           
  WORKING PAPERS    
           
  "Fiscal Policy in the European Monetary Union" (pdf) JOB MARKET PAPER (Revised)  
 

A country entering the EMU surrenders its monetary policy, and its debt becomes denominated in terms of a currency over which it has no direct control. A country’s promise to uphold the fiscal limits in the Maastricht Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact is implicitly a promise not to allow its fiscal stance to deteriorate to a position in which it places pressure on the central bank to forgo its price level target to finance fiscal deficits. Violation of these limits has raised questions about potential fiscal encroachment on the monetary authority’s freedom to determine the price level. We specify a simple model of fiscal policy in which the fiscal authority faces an upper bound on the size of its primary surplus in the long run. Policy is determined by a fiscal rule, specified as an error correction model, in which the primary surplus responds to debt and a target variable. We show that for the monetary authority to have the freedom to control price, the primary surplus must respond strongly enough to lagged debt. Using panel cointegration and panel techniques that allow for heterogeneity and for cross-sectional dependence across countries, we estimate the coefficients of the error correction model for the primary surplus in a panel of ten EMU countries over the period 1970-2006. The group mean estimate for the coefficient on lagged debt is consistent with the hypothesis that the monetary authority can control the price level in the EMU, independent of fiscal influence.

 
           
  "Did the Euro Give Us a Break in Inflation?" (pdf) (graphs)  
 
The general public feels that inflation rose when the euro was introduced, whereas the officials say that inflation did not change, thus creating a discrepancy. In 1997, Feldstein predicted that inflation would rise since the introduction of the euro would allow monetary policy to relax somewhat, after being very tight to qualify for EMU membership. This paper investigates whether inflation in fifteen European countries experienced a structural break after the euro was introduced. We find evidence that the EMU countries experienced a positive break in inflation after 1999. Additionally, we find no evidence of positive breaks for the non-EMU countries when the euro was introduced.
 
           
           
  WORK IN PROGRESS    
           
  "Fiscal Risk in the European Monetary Union"    
           
  "Swings in the Dollar: Do they really Exist?"  
           
  "Heterogeneous Fiscal Theory of the Price Level "  
           
  "Common International Shock in Forecast Revisions "  
           
  "GMM Estimates of a Dynamic Error Correction Model "  
           
  "Occupational Choice: An Application to the Market for Pharmacists"